《The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders》读书笔记

《The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders》

Jack D. Schwager

141个笔记

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2026/01/07 认为好看

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Prologue

One day, the young man observes, “The stone I hold is not genuine Jade.”有一天，年轻人观察到：“我手中的这块石头并不是真正的玉。” I lean back in my chair, savoring the story. My student interrupts.我靠在椅背上，细细品味这个故事。这时，我的学生打断了我的思绪。“OK. OK. That’s a great story. I don’t see what it has to do with making money. I come to you to find out about the markets. I want to learn about the bulls and the bears, commodities, stocks, bonds, calls and options. I want to make big money. You tell me a fable about Jade. What is this? You…”“好吧，好吧。这故事确实很有趣，但我不明白它和赚钱有什么关系。我来找你是想了解市场的情况的。我想学习关于多头和空头、大宗商品、股票、债券、看涨期权和看跌期权的相关知识，还想赚大钱。你却给我讲了一个关于‘玉’的寓言……这到底是什么意思？”“That’s all for now. Leave those price charts on the table. Come back next week.”“就这些了。把那些价格图表留在桌子上，下周再来吧。”Months pass. My student interrupts less and less as I continue the story of The Trader’s Window.几个月过去了。随着我继续讲述《商人的窗户》这个故事，我的学生打断我的次数越来越少。

Misadventures in Trading On the lecture tour following the completion of this book’s predecessor, Market Wizards, certain questions came up with reliable frequency. One common question was: “Has your own trading improved dramatically now that you’ve just finished interviewing some of the world’s best traders?” Although I had the advantage of having plenty of room for dramatic improvement in my trading, my response was a bit of a cop-out. “Well,” I would answer, “I don’t know. You see, at the moment, I’m not trading.” While it may seem a bit heretical for the author of Market Wizards not to be trading, there was a perfectly good reason for my inaction. One of the cardinal rules about trading is (or should be): Don’t trade when you can’t afford to lose. In fact, there are few more certain ways of guaranteeing that you will lose than by trading money you can’t afford to lose. If your trading capital is too important, you will be doomed to a number of fatal errors. You will miss out on som

当你承担不起损失时，就不要进行交易。事实上，没有什么比用自己无法承受损失的资金去交易更肯定会让自己亏损的方式了。如果你的交易资金过于重要，那你注定会犯下许多致命的错误。同时，你也会错过一些最佳的交易机会，因为这些机会往往风险最高。一旦出现价格走势不利的迹象，你就会过早地退出原本处于有利的位置，结果却发现市场实际上正朝着你预期的方向发展。由于担心市场会把你已经获得的利润夺走，你会过于急切地锁定最初的那点收益。具有讽刺意味的是，对亏损的过度担忧反而可能导致你继续持有那些正在亏损的交易——因为恐惧会让你变得优柔寡断，就像一只被汽车前灯照得动弹不得的鹿一样。简而言之，用“恐惧心理”进行交易会引发一系列负面情绪，这些情绪会干扰你的决策过程，几乎注定会导致交易失败。

Hussein Makes a Bad Trade In many ways, the elements of good and bad decision making in trading are very similar to those that apply to decision making in general. The start of my work on this book coincided with the events immediately preceding the Persian Gulf War. I couldn’t help but be struck by the similarity between Saddam Hussein’s actions (or, more accurately, the lack thereof) and the typical responses of a foundering novice trader. Hussein’s trade was the invasion of Kuwait. Initially, he had solid, fundamental reasons for the trade. (The fundamentalist reasons came later, of course, as Hussein found it convenient to discover religion.) By invading Kuwait, Hussein could drive up oil prices to Iraq’s benefit by eliminating one of the countries that consistently exceeded its OPEC quota and by creating turmoil in the world oil markets. He also stood a perceived good chance of permanently annexing part or all of Kuwait’s oil fields, as well as gaining direct access to the Persian

Moral: If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.寓意：如果你不能承受小的损失，迟早你会承受所有的损失。

PART II

The World’s Biggest Market世界最大的市场

Bill Lipschutz THE SULTAN OF CURRENCIES Quick, what is the world’s largest financial market? Stocks? No, not even if you aggregate all the world’s equity markets. Of course, it must be bonds. Just think of the huge government debt that has been generated worldwide. Good guess, but wrong again, even if you combine all the world’s fixed-income markets. The correct answer is currencies. In the scope of all financial trading, stocks and bonds are peanuts compared with currencies. It is estimated that, on average, $1 trillion is traded each day in the world currency markets. The vast majority of this currency trading does not take place on any organized exchange but rather is transacted in the interbank currency market. The interbank currency market is a twenty-four-hour market, which literally follows the sun around the world, moving from banking centers of the United States, to Australia, to the Far East, to Europe, and finally back to the United States. The market exists to fill the need

Quick, what is the world’s largest financial market? Stocks? No, not even if you aggregate all the world’s equity markets. Of course, it must be bonds. Just think of the huge government debt that has been generated worldwide. Good guess, but wrong again, even if you combine all the world’s fixed-income markets. The correct answer is currencies. In the scope of all financial trading, stocks and bonds are peanuts compared with currencies.
As mentioned earlier, the large TV screen in Lipschutz’s living room is normally tuned to a currency quote display, with a Reuters news feed running across the bottom. Although Lipschutz seemed to be paying full attention to our conversation, on some level he was obviously watching the screen. At one point, the Australian dollar was in the midst of a precipitous decline following some disastrously negative comments made by the Australian finance minister. Although the market was in a virtual free-fall, Lipschutz felt the sell-off was overdone and interrupted our interview to call in some orders. “Nothing big,” he said. “I’m just trying to buy twenty [$20 million Australian, that is].” Immediately afterward, the Australian dollar started to trade higher and continued to move up throughout the rest of the evening. Lipschutz didn’t get a fill, however, because he had entered his order at a limit price just a hair below where the market was trading, and the market never traded lower. “Missing an opportunity is as bad as being on the wrong side of a trade,” he said.正如前面提到的，利普舒茨客厅里的大电视屏幕通常会调到外汇报价界面，下面滚动着路透社的新闻信息流。虽然利普舒茨似乎在专心跟我谈话，但他的注意力显然也在电视屏幕上。澳大利亚财长发表了一些灾难性的负面言论后，澳元汇率急剧下跌。利普舒茨觉得抛售过度了，于是中断采访，下了几笔单子。“不是大单，”他说，“我只是想买二十（2000万澳元）。”之后，澳元汇率开始回升，当晚余下的时间一直在上涨。然而，利普舒茨没有成交，因为他下的单价比市场价只低了一点点，而市场从没跌到过那个价位。“错失良机和做错交易一样糟糕，”他说。
After about ten minutes of this question-and-answer process, he stops abruptly, looks me straight in the eye, and says, “OK, forget all this bullshit. So you want to be a trader. Every fucking guy comes here and tells me he wants to be a trader. You said you’re trading your own account. What stocks are you trading?”经过大约十分钟的问答，他突然停下来，直视我的眼睛，说：“好吧，忘了这些废话。所以你想成为一名交易员。每个混蛋都来这里告诉我，他想成为一名交易员。你说你在交易自己的账户。你在交易什么股票？”“I’ve been pretty involved in Exxon recently,” I reply.“我最近一直在关注埃克森公司，”我回答道。He snaps back, “I don’t know that stock. Give me another one.”他不耐烦地回答道：“我不知道那支股票。再给我一支。”“I’ve also been pretty involved in 3M,” I answer.我回答说：“我也一直积极参与3M的活动。”“I don’t know that one either,” he shoots back. “Give me another one.”“我也不认识那个，”他反驳道，“再给我一个。”I answer, “U.S. Steel.”我回答说：“美国钢铁公司。”“U.S. Steel. I know Steel. Where is it trading?”“美国钢铁公司。我认识钢铁公司。它在哪里交易？”“It closed last night at 30 1/2.”“它昨晚以30 1/2美元收盘。”“It just went across the board at 5/8,” he says. “Where did it break out from?” he asks.他说：“它只是以5/8的价格全线突破。”他问道：“它是从哪里突破的？”“Twenty-eight,” I answer.“二十八，”我回答道。He fires right back, “And where did it break out from before that?”他反击道，“那之前是从哪里爆发的呢？”“Well, that must have been over three years ago!” I exclaim, somewhat startled at the question. “I believe it broke out from about the 18 level.”“嗯，那一定是在三年多前了！”我惊呼道，对这个问题有点惊讶。“我记得是从 18 级左右爆发的。”At that point, he slows down, stops looking at the tape, and says, “I want you to work for me.” That was the end of the interview.在那一刻，他放慢了脚步，不再看录像带，说：“我想让你为我工作。”面试到此结束。
Did the job working on the equity options desk prove valuable in terms of learning how to trade options?在股票期权部门的工作对学习如何交易期权是否有价值？ The job was certainly helpful in terms of overall trading experience, but you have to understand that, at the time, equity options trading at Salomon was highly nonquantitative. In fact, when I think back on it now, it seems almost amazing, but I don’t believe anybody there even knew what the Black-Scholes model was [the standard option pricing model]. Sidney would come in on Monday morning and say, “I went to buy a car this weekend and the Chevrolet showroom was packed. Let’s buy GM calls.” That type of stuff.这份工作肯定对我的交易经验大有裨益，但你得明白，当时所罗门兄弟的股票期权交易与定量分析几乎毫不沾边。事实上，现在回想起来，当时的情形简直令人难以置信，但我相信，公司里根本没人知道什么“布莱克-斯科尔斯模型”（Black-Scholes model，即标准期权定价模型）。西德尼会在周一早上走进办公室说：“这个周末我去雪佛兰的展厅看车，展厅里人满为患。咱们买些通用汽车的看涨期权吧。”诸如此类的话。
I remember one trader pulling me aside one day and saying, “Look, I don’t know what Sidney is teaching you, but let me tell you everything you need to know about options. You like ’em, you buy calls. You don’t like ’em, you buy puts.”我记得有一天一个交易员把我拉到一边说，“听着，我不知道西德尼在教你什么，但让我告诉你关于期权你需要知道的一切。你喜欢它们，就买看涨期权。你不喜欢它们，就买看跌期权。” In other words, they were basically trading options as a leveraged outright position.换句话说，他们基本上是在交易期权作为杠杆头寸。 That’s exactly right. But that whole trading approach actually fit very well with my own tape-reading type of experience.完全正确。但这种交易方法实际上非常符合我自己的磁带阅读经验。
What did you get out of the Salomon training course besides being indoctrinated into the culture?除了被灌输所罗门文化，你在所罗门培训课程中学到了什么？ That was what I got out of it.这就是我从中得到的。 It doesn’t sound like very much. Was there more to it?这听起来不多。还有更多吗？
How was it that you ended up in currencies after the training session was over as opposed to going back to equities?培训结束后，你为什么最终进入外汇市场，而不是回到股票市场？ Actually, I wanted to go back to equities, but one of the senior people in the department took me aside and said, “You’re much too quantitative. You don’t need to be down here in equities.” He talked me into going into this new department that was being formed: foreign exchange. I was one of the more highly thought-of trainees, and at the end of the session, I was recruited by several departments, including the currency department, which was just being formed.实际上，我想回到股票部门，但部门里一位资深人士把我拉到一边说：“你太注重量化了。你不需要待在股票部门。”他劝我加入新成立的外汇部门。我是最受重视的实习生之一，在培训结束时，我被几个部门录用，包括新成立的外汇部门。 How did you choose the currency department?你是如何选择货币部门的？ I wanted a trading position, and I got along well with the people. However, I had a lot less choice than I might have been led to believe at the time.我想要一个交易职位，我和人们相处得很好。然而，我的选择比我当时可能认为的要少得多。 What do you mean?你是什么意思？ You get recruited, do your lobbying, and pick your choices, but by the end of the day, the powers that be get to move the chess pieces and decide where they want you placed.你被招募，做你的游说工作，选择你的选择，但到一天结束时，当权者会移动棋子，决定他们想要你放在哪里。
Tell me about your early trading experiences in currencies.跟我说说你在外汇交易方面的早期经历吧。 At around the same time that the Salomon Brothers foreign exchange department was formed, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange introduced a currency option contract. I was the only one at the desk who even knew what a put or call was. Also, the product was being traded on a stock exchange with a specialist system, and I was the only one on the desk with any background in equities. Everyone else in the department came from fixed-incomeland, which is the forty-second floor. Equityland is on the forty-first, where I came from. I don’t think anybody else in the department had ever even been on the forty-first. I also knew specialists and market makers on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange floor. No one else in the department even knew what a specialist was. [In a specialist system, a single individual matches buy and sell orders for a security, as opposed to an open outcry system, in which orders are executed by brokers shouting their bids and offers in a trading ring.] The situation was tailor-made for me. Gil said, “You’re the only one in the department who knows anything about this, so just do it.”就在所罗门兄弟公司外汇部门成立的同时，费城证券交易所推出了一种货币期权合约。当时，交易柜台上只有我一个人知道什么是看跌期权或看涨期权。而且，这种产品是在一个具有专门交易系统的证券交易所进行交易的，而交易柜台上只有我一个人拥有股票方面的背景。部门里的其他人都来自固定收益部门，也就是 42 层。股票部门在 41 层，我就是来自 41 层。我觉得部门里其他人甚至没有到过 41 层。我还认识费城证券交易所交易厅里的专家和做市商。部门里其他人甚至不知道专家是干什么的。（在专家制度下，单个个人为一种证券匹配买卖指令，与公开喊价制度相对，在公开喊价制度下，指令由经纪人在交易圈内喊出他们的买入价和卖出价来执行。）这种情况简直就是为我量身定制的。吉尔说：“你是部门里唯一一个对此有所了解的人，所以你就去做吧。”The key point I am trying to make is that Salomon’s foreign exchange department, Bill Lipschutz as foreign exchange trader, and currency options all started at the same time, and we grew together. It was a unique, synergistic type of experience.我试图说明的关键点是，所罗门兄弟的外汇部门、外汇交易员比尔·利普舒茨和货币期权都是在同一时间开始的，我们共同成长。这是一种独特、协同的体验。
How did you become successful as a currency trader without any previous experience?你是如何在没有任何经验的情况下成为一名成功的货币交易者的？ Foreign exchange is all about relationships. Your ability to find good liquidity, your ability to be plugged into the information flow—it all depends on relationships. If you call up a bank and say, “I need a price on ten dollar [$10 million] mark,” they don’t have to do anything. They can tell you, “The mark dealer is in the bathroom; call back later.” If I call up at 5 P.M. and say, “Hey, Joe, it’s Bill, and I need a price on the mark,” the response is going to be entirely different: “I was just on my way out the door, but for you I’ll see what I can do.”外汇交易全靠关系。能否找到好的流动性，能否获得信息流，全靠关系。如果你打电话给一家银行说，“我需要1000万美元（1000万美元）的价格，”他们不需要做任何事情。他们可以告诉你，“做马克交易的交易员在洗手间；晚点再打来。”如果我下午5点打电话说，“嗨，乔，我是比尔，我需要1000万美元（1000万美元的价格），”回应会完全不同：“我正要出门，但看在你的面子上，我会尽力。”
Also, I worked for Salomon Brothers, which at that time provided an element of mystique: “We don’t know what they do, but they make a lot of money.”此外，我曾在所罗门兄弟公司工作过，这在当时提供了一种神秘感：“我们不知道他们做什么，但他们赚了很多钱。”Another factor in my favor was that, although I worked for an investment bank, I tried not to act like a pompous investment banker. The typical guys in investment banks who were doing foreign exchange back then were fixed-income types. They were prissy in the eyes of the FX [foreign exchange] guys. They wore suspenders and Hermès ties; they were white-wine-and-arugula-salad type of guys. They were not the go-out-for-pasta-and-dribble-marinara-sauce-all-over-yourself type of guys, which is what the foreign exchange traders basically were. I was really different; my background was different.还有一个对我有利的因素是，尽管我为一家投资银行工作，但我尽量不表现得像一个浮夸的投资银行家。当时，投资银行中从事外汇交易的典型人士都是固定收益型的人。在外汇交易员眼中，他们有些矫揉造作。他们穿着吊带和爱马仕领带；他们是喝白葡萄酒吃芝麻菜沙拉的那种人。他们不是那种出去吃意大利面，番茄酱滴得满身都是的人，而外汇交易员基本上就是那种类型。我真的很不一样；我的背景很不一样。
I was the first person at Salomon Brothers to have a Telerate at home. They couldn’t believe it. “You want a screen at home? Are you out of your mind? Don’t you ever turn off?”我是所罗门兄弟公司（Salomon Brothers）第一个在家里拥有一台Telerate的人，他们简直不敢相信，“你想在家里放一个屏幕？你疯了吗？你从不关掉它吗？”I would look at them and say, “Foreign exchange is a twenty-four-hour market. It doesn’t go to sleep when you leave at 5 P.M. The market is really there all night, and it moves!”我会看着他们说，“外汇市场是一个 24 小时的市场。你下午 5 点离开时，它不会睡觉。整个晚上市场都在那里，而且它还会波动！”
Is having contacts important in order to be plugged into the news?为了了解新闻，拥有联系人很重要吗？ Absolutely. Those of us who did well were generally the ones who were accepted by the interbank circle. The traders who stayed aloof tended to be the ones who couldn’t make any money trading foreign exchange. These traders would end up calling a clerk on the Merc floor [the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which trades futures on currencies—an active but still far smaller market than the interbank market] and would say, “So, how does the Swissy look?” What is a clerk going to know about what is actually driving the international currency market? I would be talking to bankers throughout the day and night—in Tokyo, London, Frankfurt, and New York.当然。那些做得好的交易员通常都是那些被银行间圈子所接受的人。那些保持距离的交易员往往是那些在外汇交易中赚不到钱的人。这些交易员最终会打电话给芝加哥商品交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange，交易货币期货——一个活跃但仍然比银行间市场小得多的市场）的职员，并说：“那么，瑞士法郎看起来怎么样？”一个职员怎么会知道是什么在驱动着国际货币市场呢？我整天整夜地和银行家们交谈——在东京、伦敦、法兰克福和纽约。 Were you trading off of this information flow?你是否利用这些信息流进行交易？ That’s what foreign exchange trading is all about.这就是外汇交易的意义所在。
Can you give me a recent example of how information flow helps in trading?你能给我举一个最近的例子，说明信息流如何有助于交易吗？ At the time the Berlin Wall came down, the general market sentiment was that everyone would want to get money into East Germany on the ground floor. The basic assumption was that large capital flows into Eastern Europe would most directly benefit the Deutsche mark. After a while, the realization set in that it was going to take a lot longer to absorb East Germany into a unified Germany.柏林墙倒塌时，普遍的市场情绪是，每个人都想在底部将资金投入东德。基本假设是，大量资本流入东欧将最直接地有利于德国马克。过了一段时间，人们意识到，将东德融入统一的德国将需要更长的时间。How does that shift in attitude come about? Kohl makes a statement; Baker makes a comment; statistics reveal very high East German unemployment. The East Germans, who have lived all their life under a socialist system, begin saying, “We don’t want to work as hard as those West Germans, and by the way, how come the state is not paying for our medical bills anymore?” The investment community begins to realize that the rebuilding of Eastern Europe is going to be a long haul. As this thinking becomes more prevalent, people start moving capital out of the Deutsche mark.这种态度的转变是如何发生的呢？科尔发表声明；贝克发表评论；统计数据表明东德失业率非常高。东德人，他们一生都在社会主义制度下生活，开始说：“我们不想像西德人那样努力工作，顺便说一句，国家为什么不再为我们支付医疗费用了？”投资界开始意识到重建东欧将是一项长期任务。随着这种想法越来越普遍，人们开始将资金从德国马克转移到其他货币。
You could have made all those same arguments when the wall first came down.当墙第一次倒塌时，你可以提出所有这些同样的论点。
I don’t think many people saw it that way at the time, and even if they did, that’s not important. What is important is to assess what the market is focusing on at the given moment.我不认为当时有很多人这样认为，即使他们这样认为，那也不重要。重要的是评估市场在特定时刻的关注点。
And the way you get that information is by talking to lots of participants in the foreign exchange market?你是通过与外汇市场的许多参与者交谈来获得这些信息吗？ Yes. Not everyone is going to interpret things in the same way, at the same time, as you do, and it’s important to understand that. You need to be plugged into the news and to know what the market is looking at. For example, one day the foreign exchange market may be focusing on interest rate differentials; the next day the market may be looking at the potential for capital appreciation, which is exactly the opposite. [A focus on interest rate differentials implies that investors will shift their money to the industrialized countries with the highest interest rate yields, whereas a focus on capital appreciation implies that investors will place their money in the countries with the strongest economic and political outlooks, which usually happen to be the countries with lower interest rates.]是的。不是每个人都会像你一样同时对同一件事进行解读，理解这一点很重要。你需要了解新闻，了解市场关注的是什么。例如，某一天外汇市场可能聚焦于利差；第二天市场可能关注资本增值潜力，两者正好相反。（聚焦于利差意味着投资者将把资金转移到利率最高的工业化国家，而聚焦于资本增值意味着投资者将把资金投入经济和政治前景最好的国家，后者通常利率较低。）
At the time, I was the only currency options trader on the Philadelphia Exchange that regularly traded in fifties. The entire daily volume in the market was only about two or three hundred contracts. I did another fifty, another fifty, and another fifty. Then Goldman Sachs came in and did fifty. All of a sudden, the specialist had sold three to four hundred of these options. He obviously thought he had a locked-in arbitrage profit, but he had done his arithmetic wrong. I knew exactly what was happening. Finally, I said to my broker, “Ask him if he wants to do one thousand.”当时，我是费城交易所唯一一个经常交易五十期权的交易员。整个市场的日交易量只有两三百份合约。我又下了五十份，又下了五十份，又下了五十份。然后高盛也下了五十份。突然间，这个专家卖出了三四百份期权。他显然以为自己稳赚不赔，但是他算错了。我非常清楚发生了什么。最后，我对我的经纪人说，“问问他，想不想做一千份。”
He asks, “Do you really want to do one thousand?”他问道：“你真的想做一千个吗？”I answer, “Listen, you’re off by a big figure on your price.”我回答说：“听着，你开的价格离谱了。”“What are you talking about?” he exclaims. I start walking him through the numbers. Before I finish he says, “I’ve got to go,” and the phone goes dead.“你在说什么？”他大声说道。我开始向他解释这些数字。在我说完之前，他说：“我得走了，”然后电话就挂断了。I got off the phone and thought about it for a few minutes. I realized that holding him to the trade would put him out of business—a development that would be bad for the exchange and terrible for the product [currency options], which we were just beginning to trade in a significant way. I called my broker and said, “Break all the trades after the first fifty.”我挂了电话，思考了几分钟。我意识到，坚持要求他进行交易会让他破产——这对交易所和产品（货币期权）都不利，我们刚开始大量交易该产品。我打电话给我的经纪人，说：“前 50 笔交易全部取消。”At about the same time, my outside phone line rang. The specialist was on the other end of the line. “I can’t believe it!” he exclaimed, agonizing over the immensity of his error. “This is going to put me out of business.”大约在同一时间，我的外线电话响了。专家在电话线的另一端。“我简直不敢相信！”他痛苦地哀叹自己的巨大错误。“这会让我破产的。”I said, “Don’t worry about it, I’m breaking all the trades, except the first fifty.”我说，“别担心，我打破了所有的交易，除了前50个。”(By the way, Goldman refused to break any of the 150 they had done. Years later, after the specialist company had gone out of business, and the individual specialist had become the head trader for the largest market maker on the floor, he always made it very difficult for Goldman on the floor.)（顺便说一句，高盛拒绝打破他们已经完成的 150 笔交易中的任何一笔。多年后，当这家专业公司破产，个人专业人员成为场内最大的做市商的首席交易员时，他总是让高盛在场内很难受。）My action of breaking the trades represented a long-term business decision, which I didn’t think about a lot at the time, but which I agonized over for years afterward.我打破交易的行动代表着一个长期的商业决策，我当时并没有想太多，但后来却为此苦恼了多年。
Why is that?为什么会这样？ I have a reputation as being one of the most—if not the most—hard-assed players in the market. I never, ever, ever, ever, cut anybody a break, because I figured that at Salomon everybody was trying to knock us off. I was sure that if the tables were reversed, no one would ever give us a break. My view was always that these are the rules of the game. I don’t give any quarter, and I don’t expect any quarter.我以市场中最强硬的队员之一（如果不是最强硬的）而闻名。我从来没有、从来没有、从来没有、从来没有饶过任何人，因为我认为在所罗门公司，每个人都在试图打败我们。我确信，如果情况颠倒过来，没有人会给我们一个喘息的机会。我的观点一直是，这些都是游戏规则。我不留任何情面，也不指望别人留任何情面。
I answered, “No, we don’t make errors. If you put in enough fail-safes, you don’t make errors.”我回答说：“不，我们不会犯错误。如果你设置了足够的故障安全系统，你就不会犯错误。”That was my attitude, and that was why I wouldn’t break the rules. People who knew me really well would say, “Lipschutz, why do you have to be such a hard-ass about everything?” I would simply say, “Hey, these are the rules; that’s the way the game is played.” So for me, letting the specialist off the hook was very much out of character.那就是我的态度，也是我不违反规则的原因。非常了解我的人会说，“利普舒茨，你为什么对每件事都这么强硬？”我只会说，“嘿，这是规则，游戏就是这样玩的。”所以对我来说，让专家脱身完全不符合我的性格。
Did you decide to give the specialist a break because it was such an obvious mistake? Or because you thought it might threaten the longevity of what was then a fledgling exchange and product?你决定给专家一个机会，是因为这是一个如此明显的错误吗？还是因为你认为这可能会威胁到当时刚刚起步的交易所和产品的长期发展？ It was a long-term business decision based on the opinion that it would have been bad for my business to hold him to the trade.这是一个长期的商业决定，基于这样一种观点，即如果我坚持这笔交易，对我的生意不利。
To protect your marketplace?保护你的市场？ That’s exactly right.完全正确。 Then, hypothetically, if the exchange had been there for ten years, trading volume was huge, and this trade would not have made any difference to the survival of the exchange, you would have made a different decision.然后，假设交易所已经存在了十年，交易量巨大，这笔交易不会对交易所的生存产生任何影响，你会做出不同的决定。 That’s correct. It wasn’t charity.没错，那不是慈善。 So the fact that it was such an obvious error…因此，这是一个如此明显的错误。
In exchange-traded markets, do you believe that stops have a tendency to get picked off?在交易所交易的市场上，你认为止损单有被逐个击破的趋势吗？ As you know, I do very little trading on exchanges with trading pits. The vast majority of my trades are done either in the interbank market or on the Philadelphia Exchange, which uses a specialist system. However, in answer to your question, I can tell you a story about a fellow who was at Salomon in the late 1980s.如你所知，我很少在有交易池的交易所进行交易。我绝大部分交易都在银行间市场或费城交易所进行，后者使用一种专业系统。但是，为了回答你的问题，我可以告诉你一个上世纪80年代末在所罗门兄弟公司工作的人的故事。
You did say that the stops were above the market?你确实说过停止点高于市场？ That’s right. Anyway, the market moves down 50 points, 100 points, and within a few minutes the market is down over 200 points. What happened was that the floor traders went for the stops below the market, which were 200 points away, instead of the stops above the market, which were only 50 points away. The reason was that everybody was ready for the rally to take out the stops on the upside. Therefore, everyone was long, and the direction of greatest price vulnerability was on the downside.没错。不管怎样，市场下跌 50 点，100 点，在几分钟内，市场下跌超过 200 点。发生的情况是，场内交易员在市场以下 200 点处执行止损，而不是在市场以上 50 点处执行止损。原因是，每个人都准备在反弹时取消上限止损。因此，每个人都做多，价格最脆弱的方向是下跌方向。During the sharp break, my friend realizes that the market is way overextended on the downside. He screams at his clerks, “Buy ’em! Buy any amount they’ll sell you. Just buy ’em!” He was bidding for hundreds of contracts between 100 and 200 points lower, and he was only filled on fifty, even though the market traded down over 200 points, with a couple thousand lots trading at those levels.在大幅下跌期间，我的朋友意识到市场在下行方面过度延伸。他对他的职员尖叫道：“买！买他们卖给你的任何数量。只管买！”他在 100 到 200 点之间为几百份合约叫价，尽管市场下跌了 200 多点，但只有 50 份合约成交，有几千份合约的交易价格都在这个水平。
What happened to his bid?他的出价怎么样了？ You’ve obviously never traded on the floor of an exchange. In a trading pit, it’s possible for the market to trade at several different prices at the same moment during periods of rapid movement. They were looking right past my friend’s floor brokers, who were bidding higher. It was a fast market. [When an exchange designates “fast market” conditions, floor brokers can’t be held for failing to fill orders that were within the day’s traded price range.] A fast market gives the floor brokers a special license to steal, above and beyond their normal license to steal.显然，你从未在交易所的场内交易过。在快速波动期间，在交易池中，市场有可能在同一时刻以不同的价格进行交易。他们忽视了我朋友正在喊价的场内经纪人，他们正在喊出更高的价格。这是一个快速市场。（当交易所指定“快速市场”条件时，场内经纪人不能因未能执行当天交易价格范围内的订单而被追究责任。）快速市场使场内经纪人获得了特别许可，可以偷窃，超出他们正常偷窃的许可范围。I’m not making any allegations, because I can’t prove that any of this happens. It’s just my opinion that situations like this sometimes occur in some open outcry markets.我没有提出任何指控，因为我无法证明这些情况是否发生。这只是我的观点，像这样的情况有时会在一些公开喊价的市场发生。
What was the essence of the mispricing?错误定价的本质是什么？ At the time, U.K. interest rates were a lot lower than U.S. rates. Consequently, forward sterling was trading at a huge premium to the spot rate. [If two countries have different interest rates, forward months of the currency with lower rates will invariably trade at a premium to the spot currency rate. If such a premium did not exist, it would be possible to borrow funds in the country with lower rates, convert and invest the proceeds in the country with higher rates, and buy forward currency positions in the currency with lower interest rates to hedge against the currency risk. The participation of interest rate arbitrageurs assures that the forward premiums for the currency with lower interest rates will be exactly large enough to offset the interest rate differential between the two countries.]当时，英国利率比美国利率低得多。因此，远期英镑相对于即期汇率有巨大的溢价。【如果两个国家有不同的利率，远期月份利率较低的货币将不可避免地相对于即期货币汇率溢价。如果不存在这样的溢价，就有可能在利率较低的国家借入资金，兑换并投资于利率较高的国家，并以利率较低的货币购买远期外汇头寸，以对冲汇率风险。利率套汇者的参与确保了利率较低的货币的远期溢价将恰好足够大，足以抵消两个国家的利率差异。】The way the bond issue was priced, the sterling redemption option essentially assumed no premium over the spot rate, despite the huge premium for the currency in the forward market. Therefore, you could buy the bond and sell the sterling forward at a huge premium, which over the life of the bond would converge to the spot rate.尽管远期市场上英镑的溢价很高，但根据这种债券的定价方式，英镑赎回选择权的溢价基本上等于即期汇率，而不是远期市场上的溢价。因此，你可以购买这种债券，同时以很高的溢价卖出英镑远期合约，在债券的有效期内，这种溢价将趋于即期汇率。
Anyway, what ultimately happened is that U.K. interest rates eventually reversed from below to above U.S. rates, thereby causing the British pound forward rates to invert from a premium to a discount to the spot rate. I covered the whole position at a huge profit.无论如何，最终发生的情况是，英国利率最终从低于美国利率逆转为高于美国利率，从而导致英镑远期利率从对即期汇率的溢价变为折价。我以巨大的利润覆盖了整个头寸。
Are there any other trades in your career that stand out as particularly memorable?在你的职业生涯中，还有哪些交易特别令人难忘吗？ One that comes to mind occurred at the time of the G-7 meeting in September 1985, which involved major structural changes that set the tone in the currency markets for the next five years. [This was the meeting at which the major industrialized nations agreed to a coordinated policy aimed at lowering the value of the dollar.]脑海中浮现的一个例子是 1985 年 9 月的七国集团会议，这次会议涉及重大的结构性变化，为未来五年的货币市场定下了基调。（这次会议的主要工业化国家同意采取协调一致的政策，以降低美元的价值。）
You were obviously very closely tied into the currency markets. Did you have any idea that such a major policy change was at hand?你显然与外汇市场有着密切的联系。你是否知道这样的重大政策变化即将到来？ No. There were some people who had an inkling that there was going to be a meeting at which the Western governments were going to drive the dollar down, but nobody understood the magnitude of what that meant. Even after the results of the meeting were reported, the dollar traded down, but nothing compared to the decline that occurred in the ensuing months. In fact, after an initial sell-off in New Zealand and Australia, the dollar actually rebounded modestly in Tokyo.不。有些人隐约感觉到，在这次会议上，西方国家政府将压低美元汇率，但没有人明白这意味着什么。即使在会议结果公布后，美元汇率也有所下跌，但与随后的几个月相比，这微不足道。事实上，在新西兰和澳大利亚的最初抛售之后，东京的美元汇率实际上出现了温和反弹。 How do you explain that?你怎么解释？ People didn’t really understand what was happening. The general attitude was: “Oh, another central bank intervention.” Remember that this meeting took place after years of ineffective central bank intervention.人们并不真正了解发生了什么。普遍的态度是：“哦，又一次央行干预。”请记住，这次会议是在多年无效的央行干预之后召开的。
What was different this time?这次有什么不同？ This was the first time that we saw a coordinated policy statement from the seven industrialized nations. Anyway, I was out of the country at the time of the G-7 meeting. I don’t take vacations very often, but I had had a very good year, and I was in Sardinia at the time. Sardinia is fairly isolated, and it takes something like two hours to make an overseas call.这是我们第一次看到七国集团发表协调一致的政策声明。不管怎样，我在七国集团会议期间出国了。我不经常休假，但那一年我过得很好，当时我在撒丁岛。撒丁岛相当偏僻，打国际电话要花两个小时左右。 Were you aware of the situation?你知道这个情况吗？ I didn’t even know what the G-7 was. The meeting didn’t have any significant implication at the time; it was just a bunch of bureaucrats getting together to talk down the value of the dollar.我甚至不知道七国集团是什么。当时会议没有任何重大意义；只是一群官僚聚在一起谈论美元贬值。
Andy was hitting bids six big figures below Friday’s close. I was really impressed that he had that type of insight. I wouldn’t have done that.安迪的出价比上周五的收盘价低六位数，我真的很佩服他有这种洞察力，我不可能做到这一点。To make a long story short, for six hours I had an open line from my hotel room in Sardinia to Andy, who was out sick, flat on his back, in Englewood, New Jersey. It was so difficult getting an overseas phone connection that we just left the line open all day. Andy had the line to me and an open line to the floor on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, where we were trading currency options. In addition, he had his wife run out to Radio Shack as soon as they opened to purchase one of those extra-long telephone cord extensions. He then brought in a third line from the neighbor’s house to allow him to establish an open phone to our spot dollar/mark broker so that we could trade the cash market. We traded that way for six hours. We made $6 million that day, which at that time was probably more than 25 percent of our total annual profits.长话短说，在六个小时的时间里，我从撒丁岛的酒店房间给在新泽西州恩格尔伍德卧病在床的安迪打了通电话，这通电话没有受到任何干扰。我们很难接通这通越洋电话，于是我们就让这通电话一直开着。安迪通过这通电话与我通话，同时与费城股票交易所的货币期权交易场所保持通话。此外，他让妻子去Radio Shack商店购买一个超长电话线延长器。然后，他从邻居家拉来第三条电话线，以便他可以与我们的美元/德国马克经纪人保持通话，这样我们就可以交易现货市场了。我们就这样交易了六个小时。那一天，我们赚了600万美元，在当时，这大概占到了我们全年利润的25%以上。
“Well, I think you kind of tipped your hand on Friday afternoon,” I answered.我回答说：“嗯，我认为你周五下午有点露馅了。”“Yeah, that was the stupidest thing,” he said. The purchase of yen in the interbank market hadn’t been his decision; it was a committee decision at his company. He finally told me, “We’re not going to exercise.”“是的，那是最愚蠢的事情，”他说。在银行间市场购买日元不是他的决定；这是他公司的一个委员会的决定。他终于告诉我，“我们不会去锻炼了。” Did he just call to let you know that they weren’t going to exercise and let you off the hook?他只是打电话告诉你他们不会锻炼，让你摆脱困境吗？ I would have had that information prior to the New Zealand opening anyway. He was probably trying to sniff out my position—that is, whether I had hedged or not. If he could figure out what I had done, there would be a potential play for him in the marketplace. As it turns out, I had not hedged, and I was net long the yen position. If he knew that, he could have gone into New Zealand, which is the first interbank market to open, and pushed the market against me. By telling him that they had tipped their hand by selling the yen on Friday afternoon, I let him believe that I had figured out their position—which I had—and hedged—which I had not. In any event, there was some news over the weekend, and the dollar opened up sharply lower against the yen. I actually ended up substantially increasing my profit on the trade.我本来会在新西兰市场开盘之前得到这些信息。他可能是在试探我的头寸，也就是说，试探我是否进行了对冲。如果他能弄清楚我的操作，他就可以在市场上做文章。结果，我没有进行对冲，日元头寸处于净多头寸。如果他知道这个情况，他就可以去新西兰市场，因为新西兰市场是第一个开盘的银行间市场，然后推高日元兑美元的汇率。我告诉他，他们在上周五下午卖出日元，已经泄露了他们的头寸，让他相信我已经看穿了他们的头寸，而事实上我的确看穿了。不管怎样，周末有一些消息，美元兑日元汇率大幅低开。实际上，我大幅提高了这笔交易中的利润。 How much did you end up making on that trade?你最终在这笔交易中赚了多少钱？ A totally ridiculous amount—something like $20 million. However, the thing that was so great about the trade was not the money but the mental chess game that Friday afternoon—all the back-and-fourth bluffing. People were calling my desk all Friday afternoon to ask us what was going on between us and the other firm. There was nothing else going on in the market. These were the biggest positions in the market by a hundredfold that day.一个完全荒谬的数量——大约 2000 万美元。然而，这笔交易最棒的地方不在于钱，而在于那个周五下午的智力博弈——所有那些你来我往的虚张声势。整个周五下午，人们都在给交易部门打电话，询问我们和另一家公司之间到底发生了什么。市场上没有发生任何其他事情。那天，这些是市场上最大的头寸，其规模是以往的 100 倍。
What did you learn from the entire experience?你从整个经历中学到了什么？ Mostly I learned a lot about the firm and myself. I have a lot of respect for Salomon’s willingness to understand what happens in the markets. If you want to play the game, sometimes somebody is going to get assassinated, sometimes someone is going to make a speech at the UN, and you’re going to be on the wrong side of the trade—it’s just the way it is. Exogenous events are exogenous events. They really understood that.我主要学到了很多关于公司和自己的东西。我非常尊重所罗门公司愿意了解市场发生的事情。如果你想玩这个游戏，有时有人会被暗杀，有时有人会在联合国发表演讲，而你会站在交易错误的一方——事情就是这样。外源性事件就是外源性事件。他们真的明白这一点。 You said that you also learned about yourself. What did you learn?你说你也了解了自己。你学到了什么？ That was the first time it hit home that, in regards to trading, I was really very different from most people around me. Although I was frightened at the time, it wasn’t a fear of losing my job or concern about what other people would think of me. It was a fear that I had pushed the envelope too far—to a risk level that was unacceptable. There was never any question in my mind about what steps needed to be taken or how I should go about it. The decision process was not something that was cloudy or murky in my vision. My fear was related to my judgment being so incorrect—not in terms of market direction (you can get that wrong all the time), but in terms of drastically misjudging the liquidity. I had let myself get into a situation in which I had no control. That had never happened to me before.那是我第一次意识到，在交易方面，我与身边大多数人非常不同。尽管当时我很害怕，但我不是害怕失去工作，也不是担心别人会怎么看我。我害怕的是，我把事情做过了头，达到了一个不可接受的风险水平。对于需要采取什么措施，或者我应该怎么做，我的脑海里从来没有过任何疑问。我的决定过程在我的脑海里从来都不是模糊或模糊的。我的恐惧与我的判断如此不正确有关——不是在市场方向方面（你可以一直犯这样的错误），而是在严重误判流动性方面。我让自己陷入了一个无法控制的境地。这以前从未发生过。
Did you change anything because of this experience?因为这次经历，你有什么改变吗？ I decided that since I was going to work for Salomon Brothers, all my attention should go into doing that very well, not trading my own account. After that point, I never again traded my own account—not because I had lost money but because I didn’t want to split my focus, as I saw some other people do over the years. I basically took my paycheck every two weeks and put it in a money market account—a government-securities-only money market account because I wanted the extra protection.我决定，既然我要为所罗门兄弟公司工作，那么我的全部注意力就应该放在把工作做好上，而不是交易自己的账户。从那时起，我再也没有交易过自己的账户——不是因为我亏了钱，而是因为我不想像多年来我看到的其他人那样分散自己的注意力。我基本上每两周领一次薪水，然后把钱存入一个货币市场账户——一个只投资政府证券的货币市场账户，因为我想要额外的保护。
How did the sudden demise of your personal account change you as a trader?你个人账户的突然死亡如何改变了你作为交易者的身份？ I probably became more risk-control oriented. I was never particularly risk averse.我可能变得更加注重风险控制。我从不特别厌恶风险。 What do you mean by “risk control”?您所说的“风险控制”是什么意思？ There are a lot of elements to risk control: Always know exactly where you stand. Don’t concentrate too much of your money on one big trade or group of highly correlated trades. Always understand the risk/reward of the trade as it now stands, not as it existed when you put the position on. Some people say, “I was only playing with the market’s money.” That’s the most ridiculous thing I ever heard. I’m not saying that all these concepts crystallized in one day, but I think that experience with my own account set me off on the track of considering these aspects much more seriously.风险控制有很多要素：永远要知道自己所处的位置。不要把太多资金放在一笔大的交易或一组高度相关的交易上。永远要明白这笔交易目前的风险/回报比，而不是你建立头寸时的风险/回报比。有些人说，“我只是用市场的钱在玩。”这是我听过的最可笑的话。我并不是说这些概念在一夜之间就清晰起来了，但我想，用我自己账户的经验，让我更加认真地考虑了这些方面。
With all the loyalty you had to Salomon, why did you eventually leave?你对所罗门忠心耿耿，为什么最终还是离开了？ Gil, who started the department, left in 1988, and I ended up running the department for a year and a half. I would find myself talking on the phone a lot—not about trading, but rather about a lot of personnel problems. I was also not crazy about traveling all over. I didn’t like managing people in Tokyo, London, and New York.吉尔在1988年离开了这个部门，我接手了一年半。我发现自己经常打电话——不是关于交易，而是关于很多人事问题。我也不喜欢到处旅行。我不喜欢在东京、伦敦和纽约管理别人。I wanted to bring someone in as a comanager for the department. I wanted to run trading and let someone else run the administrative side. That’s not the style of Salomon Brothers, however. Instead they brought in someone from above me. Initially, I thought that it might work out, but the person they picked had no foreign exchange background at all. He came from the fixed-income department and saw everything in the eyes of the bond world. He would frequently ask, “Gee, isn’t that just like the government bond market?” The answer in my mind was, “No, it’s nothing like the government bond market. Forget the government bond market.”我想找人来担任部门联席主管，我来负责交易，其他人负责行政。但这不符合所罗门兄弟的风格。于是，他们从我上面找来一个人。起初，我觉得这样可能行得通，但他们找来的人完全没有外汇背景。他来自固定收益部门，用债券世界的眼光来看待一切。他经常问：“天哪，这不就跟政府债券市场一样吗？”我的回答是：“不，一点都不一样。别再想政府债券市场了。”
He doesn’t have to get out of the position all at once. Foreign exchange is a very psychological market. You’re assuming that the market is going to move back to equilibrium very quickly—more quickly than he can cover his position. That’s not necessarily the case. If you move the market 4 percent, for example, you’re probably going to change the market psychology for the next few days.他不必一下子退出头寸。外汇市场是一个非常心理化的市场。你假设市场会很快回到均衡状态——比你能够弥补头寸还要快。情况并不一定如此。例如，如果你把市场移动了4%，你很可能会改变未来几天的市场心理。 So you’re saying size is an advantage?所以你是说规模是一种优势？ It’s a huge advantage in foreign exchange.这在外汇交易中是一个巨大的优势。
That question really has no direct meaning. For a company like Salomon, there are no assets directly underlying the trading activity. Rather, over time, the traders and treasurer built up greater and greater amounts of credit facilities at the banks. The banks were eager to extend these credit lines because we were Salomon Brothers. This is an example of another way in which size was an advantage. By 1990, our department probably had $80 billion in credit lines. However, no specific assets were segregated or pledged to the foreign exchange activities.那个问题真的没有直接意义。对于像所罗门这样的公司来说，没有直接支持交易活动的资产。相反，随着时间的推移，交易员和财务主管在银行建立了越来越多的信用额度。银行很乐意延长这些信贷额度，因为我们是所罗门兄弟公司。这是规模优势的另一个例子。到1990年，我们的部门可能有800亿美元的信贷额度。然而，没有特定的资产被隔离或抵押给外汇活动。

The New Market Wizards_1

Do you ever have dreams about trades?你有做过关于交易的梦吗？ On one particular occasion, I had a very specific dream the night before a balance-of-trade number was to be released. I dreamt that the trade figure would be a specific number; the revision would be a specific number; the dollar would move up to a certain level, and I would buy dollars; the dollar would move up to a second level, and I would buy more dollars; the dollar would move up to a third level, and I would buy yet again; the dollar would move up to a fourth level, and I would want to sell but would buy again.有一次，在贸易平衡数据公布的前一天晚上，我做了个非常具体的梦。我梦见贸易数字是一个特定的数字；修正后的数字是一个特定的数字；美元将上涨到某个水平，我会买入美元；美元将上涨到第二个水平，我会买入更多美元；美元将上涨到第三个水平，我会再次买入；美元将上涨到第四个水平，我想卖出，但会再次买入。The next day, the trade number came out, and it was exactly the same number as in my dream. The revision was also exactly the same number. Even the price sequence was exactly the same as in my dream. The only difference was that [he pauses] I didn’t trade at all.第二天，交易数字出来了，它和我梦中的数字一模一样。修订后的数字也是一模一样。甚至价格序列也和我梦中的一模一样。唯一的区别是【他停顿了一下】我根本没有交易。
Why do you trade?你为什么交易？ I like the game. I think it’s a great challenge. It’s also an easy game to keep score of.我喜欢这个游戏。我认为这是一个巨大的挑战。这也是一个容易计分的游戏。 With trading consuming most of your day, not to mention night, is it still fun?由于交易占据了你一天的大部分时间，更不用说晚上了，这仍然很有趣吗？ It’s tremendous fun! It’s fascinating as hell because it’s different every day.这太有趣了！这太吸引人了，因为每一天都是不同的。 Would you still trade if there were no monetary remuneration?如果没有货币报酬，你还会交易吗？ Absolutely. Without question, I would do this for free. I’m thirty-six years old, and I almost feel like I have never worked. I sometimes can’t believe I’m making all this money to essentially play an elaborate game. On the other hand, when you look at all the money I’ve produced over the years, I’ve been vastly underpaid.当然。毫无疑问，我会免费做这件事。我今年 36 岁，我几乎觉得我从来没有工作过。我有时甚至不敢相信我赚了这么多钱，只是为了玩一个精心设计的游戏。另一方面，当你看到我多年来创造的所有财富时，我的报酬远远低于我的价值。
The more supertraders I interview, the more convinced I become that, at least to some degree, their success can be attributed to an innate talent. Bill Lipschutz provides an excellent example. His first encounter with trading actually involved paper trading in a college investment course. Lipschutz ended up running a hypothetical $100,000 into an incredible $29 million by the end of the course. Although this accomplishment has to be taken with a grain of salt because it didn’t involve real money and the rules of the experiment were flawed by the lack of realistic limitations on leverage, the results were striking nonetheless.我采访的超级交易员越多，我就越相信，至少在一定程度上，他们的成功可以归因于与生俱来的天赋。比尔·利普舒茨提供了一个极好的例子。他第一次接触交易实际上是在大学投资课程中的纸上交易。利普舒茨最终在课程结束时，用 100,000 美元的虚拟资金交易，赚到了 2,900 万美元。虽然这一成就必须打个折扣，因为它没有涉及真金白银，而且实验规则有缺陷，缺乏对杠杆的现实限制，但结果仍然引人注目。Lipschutz’s first experience in actual trading was prompted by a $12,000 inheritance that he steadily built up to $250,000 over a four-year period. Although he ended up blowing the entire account because of one drastic mistake of wildly overleveraging his position, that does not take away from the skill that was needed to produce the steady equity growth in the first place.利普舒兹第一次进行实际交易是因为继承了 12,000 美元，在 4 年时间里，他逐渐将这笔钱增长到了 250,000 美元。尽管由于一个严重的错误，他将整个账户都亏掉了，这个错误就是过度杠杆化他的头寸，但这并不影响他首先需要具备的实现资产稳定增长的技能。Finally, and most important, despite having had no previous experience whatsoever in the currency markets, Lipschutz was significantly profitable in his very first year of trading these markets and extraordinarily profitable over the next seven years. Although he declines to quote any specific figures, it has been estimated that his trading alone accounted for an excess of one-half billion dollars in profits for Salomon Brothers over his eight-year stay with the firm.最后，也是最重要的一点，尽管利普舒茨没有任何外汇市场的交易经验，他在进入外汇市场交易的第一年就获得了可观的利润，并且在接下来的七年里获得了非常可观的利润。虽然他拒绝透露任何具体数字，但据估计，在他为所罗门兄弟公司工作的八年时间里，他的交易就为该公司带来了超过5亿美元的利润。
One theme that seems to recur in many of my conversations with the world’s top traders is their view of the markets as a wonderful game rather than as work. Lipschutz emphatically claims that, for him, trading is such an engaging game that he would do it for free if he had to.在我与全球顶级交易者的许多次对话中，一个反复出现的主题是，他们把市场看作一场美妙的游戏，而不是一份工作。利普舒茨强调，对他来说，交易是一场如此引人入胜的游戏，如果必须的话，他愿意免费去做。
One item I found particularly curious was that, after more than four years of steady trading gains in his stock option account, Lipschutz lost virtually the entire amount in a few days’ time. Ironically, this loss coincided with his start of full employment at Salomon Brothers. Interestingly, as expressed in the interview, he had strong feelings against simultaneously trading personal and company accounts. The demise of his own account, therefore, played neatly into avoiding any potential source of conflict. In our conversation, Lipschutz insisted that the loss was probably coincidental since he was only in the training class and not yet aware of any potential conflict.我发现的一件特别奇怪的事情是，在股票期权账户的稳定交易收益超过四年后，利普舒茨在几天内几乎损失了全部金额。具有讽刺意味的是，这笔损失恰好发生在他在所罗门兄弟公司开始全职工作的时候。有趣的是，正如他在采访中所说，他强烈反对同时交易个人账户和公司账户。因此，他自己的账户的损失恰好避免了任何潜在的冲突来源。在我们的谈话中，利普舒茨坚称，这笔损失很可能是巧合，因为当时他只是在培训班，还没有意识到任何潜在的冲突。Despite Lipschutz’s denial, I couldn’t help but be reminded of the provocative aphorism: “Everybody gets what they want out of the market.”* I wondered whether Lipschutz’s subconscious was perhaps a bit more foresightful than he realized. In any case, the timing of this large loss and its relative uniqueness in Lipschutz’s trading career does seem somewhat ironic. Whether this interpretation is strained conjecture or fact, one thing is certain: Lipschutz did indeed get what he wanted—a perfect job, huge trading profits, and an absence of conflict between his personal and company trading.尽管利普舒茨否认了这一点，但我还是不禁想起了那句挑衅性的格言：“人人都能在市场上得到自己想要的东西。”我想知道，利普舒茨的潜意识是否比他自己意识到的要更有先见之明一些。不管怎样，这次巨额亏损的时机，及其在利普舒茨交易生涯中的相对独特性，看起来确实有些讽刺。无论这种解释是牵强的猜测还是事实，有一件事是肯定的：利普舒茨确实得到了自己想要的东西——一份完美的工作、巨额的交易利润，以及个人交易和公司交易之间的冲突的缺失。

Randy McKay VETERAN TRADER There are few futures traders who have gone from a starting account of several thousand dollars to double-digit million-dollar gains. Those who have kept their winnings are even fewer. If we now add the stipulation of holding a twenty-year record of highly consistent profitability, we are down to about the same number as there are Republican supporters of Teddy Kennedy. Randy McKay is one of those individuals (a consistent trader, that is—I don’t know what his political leanings are). The start of McKay’s trading career coincided with the birth of currency futures trading. Although currencies have become among the most actively traded futures markets, at their inception they were moribund. In those days, the currency trading ring was so quiet that in the list of daily activities conducted in the pit, trading was probably a distant third to newspaper reading and board games. Yet, although the currency futures market’s survival was initially in question, McKay’

That’s exactly the way I felt about it before Vietnam. During and after the war, my feelings changed drastically.在越南战争之前，我的确就是这种感受。战争期间以及战争结束后，我的想法发生了巨大的变化。 In what way?在哪些方面呢？ One of the experiences that will always be with me is standing guard duty, which is something everyone did regardless of his job. I would hear a noise in the bushes and think, “What is that?” Of course, the worst possibility was that it was one of the enemy sneaking up to try to shoot me. I would think to myself, “This is the enemy; I really want to kill him.” Then I thought about who was really out there. It was probably a young kid just like me. He didn’t hate me; he was just doing what his superiors told him to do—just like me. I remember thinking, “What’s going on here? Here’s a kid who’s as scared as I am, trying to kill me, and I’m trying to kill him.”有一段经历将永远留在我的记忆中，那就是站岗执勤——这是每个人无论从事什么工作都必须要做的任务。我会听到灌木丛中传来的声响，然后心想：“那是什么声音？”当然，最糟糕的情况就是敌人正在悄悄接近，试图射杀我。我会想：“那就是敌人，我真想杀了他。”但随后我又会想到，其实站在那里的也可能只是一个和我一样的年轻人。他并不恨我，他只是在执行上级的命令而已——就像我一样。我记得当时我在想：“这到底是怎么回事呢？一个和我一样害怕的年轻人也在试图杀我，而我也正在试图杀他。”I started to realize that war is insanity. It doesn’t make the slightest bit of sense for countries to try to settle their political differences by sending their children out to kill each other and whoever kills the most people gets the piece of land. The longer I was in Vietnam, and the more personal my experiences became, the more intently I felt that war was insanity.我开始意识到，战争简直是一种疯狂的行为。各国试图通过派遣自己的子弟去互相残杀来解决政治分歧，这种做法根本毫无道理可言；而谁杀的人越多，就能得到更多的土地。我在越南待的时间越长，我的亲身经历也就越深刻，因此我越发确信，战争确实是一种疯狂的行为。
It almost sounds as if the war made you a pacifist.听起来，似乎正是这场战争让你成为了一名和平主义者。 Very much so.确实如此。 What about the rest of the unit? Was there any prevailing sentiment about the war?这个单位的其他成员们是怎么想的呢？他们对这场战争有没有什么共同的看法或情绪？ There was a pretty wide range of feelings, but most of the unit leaned to the hawkish side. Most of them thought that we were doing the right thing; that we were there to help free these people from communism. I don’t know if they were, as we say in the markets, “talking their position,” or whether they really believed it.人们的观点多种多样，但这个团队中的大多数人倾向于强硬派立场。他们中的大多数人都认为我们正在做正确的事情，认为我们的存在就是为了帮助这些人摆脱共产主义的统治。我不知道他们这样做究竟是出于市场术语中所说的“在表达自己的立场”，还是真的相信那些观点。
Did you get into arguments because your beliefs were different?因为你们的信仰不同，所以你们之间发生过争执吗？ I tried to avoid it. You have to remember that the marines were almost all volunteer. Therefore, the people who were there believed in what they were doing. Their backgrounds were very different from mine. Few of them were college educated. A number of them came from street gangs. Some were even there because the judge had given them a choice between jail and probation on condition of joining the service.我试图避开这个话题。你需要记住，那些海军陆战队员几乎都是自愿参军的。因此，他们在那里的人都是真心相信自己正在做的事情。他们的背景与我的截然不同——其中很少有人受过大学教育，有些人来自街头帮派，还有一些人是因为法官在判刑时给了他们一个选择：要么入狱，要么在服兵役期间接受缓刑考验。
Did you feel out of place?你是否觉得自己格格不入？ I felt very much out of place. I was in an artillery unit. Each hour we received weather reports, which we were supposed to use to derive a composite adjustment factor. We filled out a form specifying the wind direction and velocity, air density, temperature, rotation of the earth, and other factors and performed a mathematical process to derive a net factor. Every time the weather report came in, it became a game to see who could derive this factor most quickly. Before I was there, the speed record was nineteen seconds. On my second day there, I broke the record, and I eventually got the time down to nine seconds. I thought this was great fun. Little did I realize that I was making enemies by the truckload.我感到自己完全格格不入。我当时在一个炮兵部队服役。每小时我们都会收到天气报告，我们需要利用这些报告来计算出一个综合调整系数。我们会填写一份表格，记录风向、风速、空气密度、温度、地球自转速度等其他相关数据，然后通过数学计算得出最终的调整系数。每次收到天气报告时，大家就会争先恐后地看谁能够最快计算出这个系数。在我来到那里之前，最快的记录是19秒；第二天我就打破了这个纪录，最终将计算时间缩短到了9秒。我觉得这非常有趣。然而我当时并不知道，我的这种行为其实让很多人对我产生了敌意。The people who were there preferred the new guys being ignorant so that they could have the feeling of helping to bring them along. Here I was, a new guy, a college kid, doing things better and faster than they were. I also got three promotions in my first four months, which was unheard of in the marines. All of this didn’t go over too well. It took me a while, but I finally realized that being a college hotshot was doing me a lot more harm than good. I made an effort to blend in better, with modest success.在那些地方，人们反而更希望新来的人一无所知，这样他们才能有一种“自己在帮助别人成长的感觉”。而我呢，作为一个刚入职的大学生，我的工作表现不仅比他们好，而且速度也更快；在入职的的前四个月里，我还获得了三次晋升——在海军陆战队，这种事情简直是闻所未闻的。然而，所有这些其实并没有给我带来什么好处。过了好一段时间，我终于意识到：作为一个“大学高才生”，其实对我来说弊大于利。后来，我努力尝试融入团队，虽然取得了一定的成功，但效果仍然不够理想。
Did you have any experiences in hand-to-hand combat in which you know that you killed somebody?你是否有过近身搏斗的经历，并且你知道自己在那种情况下杀死了某人？ Yes and no. I know that I personally killed people, but there were no specific instances in which I fired and saw someone drop. Firefights are different in reality than they are on TV. You don’t fire single shots at specific targets. Instead, you put your rifle on automatic and put out as much lead as you can. I know that I killed people with my rifle and certainly with the artillery shells that I was directing, but fortunately I never had the experience of seeing a person bleed to death by my bullet. I’m very thankful for that. I have nightmares to this day, but I’m sure my nightmares would be much worse if I had that experience.可以说是，也可以说不是。我知道自己确实杀过人，但并没有具体的场景让我开枪后看到有人倒下。现实中的枪战与电视上呈现的完全不同——你不会只瞄准某个特定的目标进行射击，而是会将步枪调到自动射击模式，尽可能多地发射子弹。我知道自己用步枪杀过人，也知道那些由我指挥发射的炮弹也造成了人员的死亡，但幸运的是，我从未亲眼看到有人被我的子弹打死。对此我感到非常庆幸。直到今天，我仍然会做噩梦，但我敢肯定，如果我真的有过那样的经历，我的噩梦会更加可怕。 Nightmares because you were the instrument of death? Or because you were exposed to death?是因为你成为了死亡的工具，所以才会做噩梦？还是因为你曾经亲身经历过死亡，才会做噩梦？ Nightmares from being exposed to death. The one nightmare I still have to this day is being chased by people with rifles. My feet get bogged down; I can’t run fast enough; and they’re gaining on me.那些与死亡相关的噩梦……直到今天，我仍然会做这样一个噩梦：有人拿着步枪在追我。我的双脚被泥泞缠住，跑不动了，他们却一直在逼近我……
How did the Vietnam experience change you?越南的经历是如何改变你的？ The major change was that I went from being a rule follower to thinking for myself. When I realized that the leaders in the country didn’t necessarily know what they were doing, I became much more independent.最大的变化在于，我从一个只会遵守规则的人变成了一个会独立思考的人。当我意识到这个国家的领导者们并不一定知道自己正在做什么时，我就变得更加独立了。
Given that you came out of Vietnam in one piece, in retrospect do you consider it a beneficial experience?既然你最终平安地从越南回来了，那么现在回想起来，你认为那段经历是有益的吗？ The discipline of boot camp and learning that war is insanity were beneficial experiences. Outside of that, it was largely a waste of two years. I used to have philosophical arguments with one of the other members of the fire direction control unit. I would argue that I would prefer to be put to sleep for two years and then be awakened rather than to go through the actual experience. He argued that any experience was worthwhile.新兵训练营的生活，以及那些关于“战争其实就是疯狂的行为”这一道理，确实是一些有益的经历。不过除此之外，那两年时间基本上就是被白白浪费掉了。我曾经与火控小组的其他成员进行过一些哲学上的争论：我认为，与其真正经历那些事情，不如让别人让我睡上两年然后再把我叫醒；而他认为，任何经历都是值得的。
While working on the floor, I had become interested in the mechanics of the market. I had always liked juggling numbers and playing strategy games, such as bridge and chess. I enjoyed watching prices fluctuate and trying to outguess the market. I thought that trading might be an interesting thing to do.在实地工作的过程中，我对市场的运作机制产生了兴趣。我一直很喜欢处理各种数字，也喜欢玩桥牌、国际象棋这类策略游戏。我喜欢观察价格的变化，试图预测市场的走势。因此，我认为从事交易工作可能会是一件很有趣的事情。 You said that your studies were directed toward a career goal of being a clinical psychologist. Did you see a connection between psychology and the markets?你说，你的学习是为了实现成为一名临床心理学家的职业目标。那么，你是否认为心理学与金融市场之间存在某种联系呢？ As a matter of fact, I did. While I was on the floor during those two years, I realized that prices moved based on the psychology of the people who were trading. You could actually see anxiety, greed, and fear in the markets. I found it very interesting to follow the customers’ moods and to see how these emotions translated into orders and ultimately into market price movements. I was fascinated by the process.事实上，我确实这么做了。在那两年的时间里，当我身处市场一线时，我逐渐意识到：价格的变动其实是由参与交易者的心理状态所决定的。在市场中，人们的情感——焦虑、贪婪或恐惧——确实会直接影响交易行为，进而影响价格走势。观察投资者的情绪变化，以及这些情绪如何转化为交易订单，最终又如何影响市场价格的变动，我觉得这一过程非常有趣，也让我着迷不已。
Currency trading began in May 1972. By the end of that calendar year, I had made $70,000, which was a sum beyond my wildest dreams.货币交易始于1972年5月。到那个日历年结束时，我赚到了7万美元，这个数字完全超出了我最大的想象。 It’s amazing that you could have made so much in such an inactive market.在这样一个不活跃的市场中，你居然能够取得如此显著的成就，实在令人惊叹。 It is. Part of the explanation is that the price inefficiencies were very great in those days because of the tremendous amount of ignorance about the currency markets. For example, we didn’t even realize that the banks were trading forward currency markets, which were exactly equivalent to futures.确实如此。部分原因在于，在那个时候，由于人们对货币市场知之甚少，因此价格机制中存在严重的效率低下的现象。例如，我们甚至没有意识到银行们其实是在进行远期货币交易，而这些交易其实与期货交易完全相同。
He turned me over to a broker who was about twenty-three years old. I put the check down in front of him and said, “I want to open an account, and here’s what I want you to do. I want you to start out by investing three-quarters of this money in a wide variety of stocks, all of which are at or near all-time highs. After that, each week, I want you to send me a list of stocks broken down by market sector, ranking the stocks in each sector by how close they are to their all-time highs.他把我介绍给了一位大约23岁的经纪人。我把支票放在他面前，说道：“我想开一个账户，希望你按照以下要求来操作：首先，请用这笔钱的四分之三去投资各种股票，这些股票的价格都应该处于或接近历史最高水平。之后，每周请你给我发送一份按行业分类的股票清单，并在清单中按照每只股票的价格与历史最高水平的差距来对它们进行排序。”He followed my instructions exactly, and I did very well in that account. However, that same year, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began trading the S&P 500 futures contract, which solved my problems on how to trade the general stock market. I thanked my broker for his efforts, closed the account, and switched into buying S&P futures. I felt bad about closing the account because he had done exactly what I had wanted him to do. He broke the market down into different sectors and bought the strongest stock in each sector.他完全按照我的指示行事，因此我在那个账户上取得了不错的成绩。然而就在同一年，芝加哥商品交易所开始交易标准普尔500指数期货合约，这一变化彻底解决了我在进行普通股票交易时所遇到的问题。我感谢我的经纪人所付出的努力，然后关闭了那个账户，转而开始购买标准普尔500指数期货。不过关闭那个账户让我感到有些内疚，因为他的表现确实完全符合我的要求——他将市场划分为不同的行业板块，然后购买每个板块中表现最强劲的股票。 Don’t feel bad; you probably taught him a lot about the markets. How did you fare once you switched to stock index futures?别难过，你很可能已经教会了他很多关于市场的知识。那么，当你开始交易股指期货之后，情况怎么样呢？ Very well. I was fortunate to catch most of the move in the S&P from 120 to 300.很好。我很幸运，能够抓住标准普尔指数从120点上涨到300点这一过程中的大部分涨幅。 Could you tell me more about what made you so bullish on the stock market?你能再详细讲讲，是什么让你对股市如此看好吗？ Part of it was just seeing the market up almost every day without any particular supporting news. In fact, the news was actually quite negative: inflation, interest rates, and unemployment were all still very high. Another important factor was that the stock market was virtually unchanged from its level twenty years earlier, while inflation had skyrocketed in the interim. Therefore, in real dollar terms, stock prices were extremely low. Also, I liked the fact that most of the experts weren’t particularly bullish. One popular analyst at the time whose comments I found particularly amusing was Joe Granville. Each time the market made a new high, he got more bearish than ever—and he was supposed to be a technician!部分原因在于：市场几乎每天都在上涨，但却没有任何实质性的利好消息作为支撑。事实上，当时的新闻报道反而相当负面——通货膨胀率、利率以及失业率都依然居高不下。另一个重要因素是：与20年前相比，股市的走势几乎没有发生变化，而在此期间通货膨胀率却急剧上升。因此，以实际美元价值来看，股价其实已经低到了极低的水平。另外，我也觉得大多数专家的态度并不特别乐观，这一点也很让我满意。当时有一位我很喜欢的分析师，他的观点常常让我觉得很有意思，他的名字叫乔·格兰维尔。每当市场创下新的高点时，他的悲观态度就会变得更加强烈——而他本来应该是一位技术分析专家才对啊！
How has the tremendous increase in professional trading that we discussed earlier changed market behavior during the past decade?我们之前讨论过的那种专业交易活动的急剧增加，在过去十年中究竟是如何改变市场行为的呢？ The big picture is probably the same, but the nature of the short-term price action is almost diametrically opposite to what it used to be. In order to get a rally, you need people on the sidelines who want to buy. When most market participants were unsophisticated, traders tended to wait until the market was in the headlines and making new highs before they started to buy. In contrast, professional traders, who dominate the markets today, will only be on the sidelines when there’s a large move in the opposite direction. As a result, the price moves that precede major trends today are very different from what they used to be because the behavior of professional traders is very different from that of naive traders.从整体来看，情况可能并没有什么变化，但短期内价格走势的性质却与过去截然不同。要想引发价格上涨，就必须有那些愿意买入的投资者存在。在过去的年代，由于大多数市场参与者缺乏经验，交易者往往要等到市场成为新闻焦点、价格创下新高时才会开始买入。而如今，那些主导市场的专业交易者则只会在这种情况发生时才会选择观望。因此，如今那些预示着重大趋势即将出现的价格波动，与过去的情况有着很大的不同——因为专业交易者的行为方式与那些缺乏经验的交易者截然不同。
At first I found it very tough. During the first twelve or thirteen years I traded, the only time I made less money than the previous year was the year I started trading at home. In the pit, you can make quick hits by taking advantage of prices being out of line. In trading off the floor, however, you have to be willing to trade longer term, because you have an execution disadvantage. I think part of my problem that first year off the floor was that I just assumed I would keep on making more money year after year and didn’t have to worry about it. Once I had a mediocre year, I realized I had to put much more energy and focus into my trading. The next year I came back with a lot more determination, and I had my first million-dollar year.起初，我觉得这非常困难。在我开始交易的头十二三年里，唯一一次赚的钱比前一年少，就是那一年我在家里进行交易。在交易所的现场交易环境中，你可以利用价格异常的情况迅速获利；然而，在场外进行交易的话，你就必须愿意进行更长期的交易，因为你在交易执行方面处于劣势。我认为，我在场外交易的第一年遇到问题的原因之一，就是我当时以为自己每年都会赚更多的钱，因此根本不需要担心这个问题。直到我遇到了一年收益平平的情况，我才意识到自己必须投入更多的精力和注意力到交易中。第二年，我带着更加坚定的决心重新开始交易，终于迎来了第一个年收入达到一百万美元的年份。
You said earlier that you were a winning trader right from the start. Is there anything specific you did that helps explain that early success?你之前说过，从一开始你就是一名能够取得成功的交易者。那么，有没有什么具体的做法或策略能够帮助解释你为何能那么早就取得成功呢？ One of the things I did that worked in those early years was analyzing every single trade I made. Every day, I made copies of my cards and reviewed them at home. Every trader is going to have tons of winners and losers. You need to determine why the winners are winners and the losers are losers. Once you can figure that out, you can become more selective in your trading and avoid those trades that are more likely to be losers.在那些早期阶段，我采取的有效方法之一就是仔细分析自己所做的每一笔交易。每天，我都会把自己的交易记录复印下来，然后在家里仔细研究这些记录。每一位交易者都会遇到大量的盈利交易和亏损交易，你需要弄清楚为什么有些交易会带来盈利，而有些交易却会导致亏损。一旦你弄明白了这个道理，你就能在交易时更加有选择性，从而避免那些更有可能导致亏损的交易。
The most important advice is to never let a loser get out of hand. You want to be sure that you can be wrong twenty or thirty times in a row and still have money in your account. When I trade, I’ll risk perhaps 5 to 10 percent of the money in my account. If I lose on that trade, no matter how strongly I feel, on my next trade I’ll risk no more than about 4 percent of my account. If I lose again, I’ll drop the trading size down to about 2 percent. I’ll keep on reducing my trading size as long as I’m losing. I’ve gone from trading as many as three thousand contracts per trade to as few as ten when I was cold, and then back again.最重要的建议就是：绝不能让那些失败者失控。你必须确保，即使自己连续二十次或三十次犯错，账户里的资金仍然足够使用。在我进行交易时，我会将自己账户中资金的5%到10%作为风险资金。如果某次交易让我亏损了，无论我当时情绪多么糟糕，下一次交易时我使用的风险资金比例都不会超过账户资金的4%；如果再次亏损，我就会将交易规模进一步降低到2%左右。只要我一直在亏损，就会持续减少交易规模。我的交易规模曾经从每次交易3000份合约减少到只有10份合约，之后又重新恢复到原来的水平。
You’ve seen lots of traders in your day both on and off the floor. Do the winners and losers separate into any distinct profiles?在你多年的职业生涯中，你一定见过许多交易员，无论他们是在交易大厅内进行交易，还是在外部进行操作。那么，那些成功的交易员和那些失败的交易员，是否具有某些明显的共同特征呢？ One very interesting thing I’ve found is that virtually every successful trader I know ultimately ended up with a trading style suited to his personality. For example, my brother is a very hardworking, meticulous type of person. When April 15 comes around, he loves to sit down, sharpen his pencils, and do his income tax. In fact, he probably gets all his pencils sharpened in March.我发现了一件非常有趣的事情：我认识的几乎每一位成功的交易者，最终都形成了与自己性格相匹配的交易风格。例如，我哥哥就是那种非常勤奋、做事一丝不苟的人。每到4月15日，他就会坐下来，把铅笔削得笔尖锋利，然后开始填写所得税申报表。事实上，他可能早在3月份就把所有的铅笔都削好了。 He must be a population of one.他肯定属于那种只有一人的群体。 Right. Anyway, he became a spreader, which suited his personality perfectly. [A spreader seeks to take advantage of discrepancies between related contracts by simultaneously implementing both long and short offsetting positions, as opposed to being net long or short the market.] And he was great at it. You could go into the pit and ask him for a quote on any spread combination, and he would be able to give you the price in an instant. He would never step out and take a risk like I would, but he traded the way he wanted to trade. On the other hand, my friends who are speculators are the type of people who will fly off to Las Vegas at a moment’s notice or climb a mountain in Africa. The bottom line is that the trading styles of successful traders tend to match their personalities.没错。总之，他最终成为了一名套利者，而这种交易方式与他的性格十分契合。[套利者会利用相关合约之间的价格差异，同时持有多头和空头头寸来进行交易，而不是单纯地持有多头或空头仓位。]而他在这方面确实非常擅长。你只要去交易大厅，向他询问任何一种套利组合的报价，他就能立刻告诉你价格。他从不像我那样去承担风险，而是按照自己想要的方式来进行交易。而我的那些从事投机活动的朋友们，往往是那种会随时动身前往拉斯维加斯，或者去非洲爬山的人。归根结底，成功的交易者的交易方式往往与他们的性格特点相匹配。

William Eckhardt THE MATHEMATICIAN William Eckhardt is one of the key figures in a famous financial tale, yet he is virtually unknown to the public. If elite traders were as familiar as leading individuals in other fields, one could picture Eckhardt appearing in one of those old American Express ads (which featured famous yet obscure names such as Barry Goldwater’s vice presidential running mate): “Do you know me? I was the partner of perhaps the best-known futures speculator of our time, Richard Dennis. I was the one who bet Dennis that trading skill could not be taught. The trading group known in the industry as the Turtles was an outgrowth of an experiment to resolve this wager.” At this point, the name WILLIAM ECKHARDT might be printed across the screen. So who is William Eckhardt? He is a mathematician who just short of earning his Ph.D. took a detour into trading and never returned to academics (at least not officially). Eckhardt spent his early trading years on the floor. Not su

At the time of our interview, after a career of anonymity, Eckhardt was poised to expand his involvement in managed money to a broader audience. Why was Eckhardt now willing to emerge into the limelight by actively seeking public funds for management? Why not simply continue to trade his own account and those of a few friends and associates, as he had done all along? In an obvious reference to the Turtles [see next chapter], Eckhardt candidly admitted, “I got tired of seeing my students managing hundreds of millions while I was managing comparatively paltry amounts.” Obviously, Eckhardt felt it was time to collect the dues he had earned.在我们进行采访时，经过多年的默默无闻，埃克哈特准备将他的资产管理业务扩展到更广泛的投资者群体。为什么埃克哈特现在愿意主动寻求公众资金来开展资产管理业务，从而走上公众视野呢？为什么他不继续像过去一样，只管理自己以及少数朋友和合作伙伴的账户呢？显然，他是在提到“海龟交易团队”（详见下一章）。埃克哈特坦率地承认：“我受够了看到我的学生们管理着数十亿美元的资金，而自己管理的资金却相对微不足道。”显然，他认为自己已经到了该获得应得回报的时候了。Trading system research is obviously something Eckhardt enjoys, and, of course, it is the way he earns his living, but his true passion may be scientific inquiry. Indeed, in a sense, trading and trading-related research is the means by which Eckhardt generates his own personal grants for the scientific projects that intrigue him. He is drawn to exploring some of the great paradoxes that continue to baffle scientists. Quantum mechanics has captured his interest because of the common-sense-defying Bell’s theorem, which demonstrates that measurements on distantly separated particle systems can determine one another in situations in which no possible influence can pass between the systems. Evolution is another area he studies, trying to find an answer to the riddle of sexual reproduction: Why did nature evolve sexual reproduction, wherein an organism passes on only half of its genes, whereas in asexual reproduction 100 percent of the genes are passed on? Perhaps his most intensive study is directed at understanding the concept of time. When I interviewed Eckhardt, he was working on a book about the nature of time (his basic premise is that the passage of time is an illusion).交易系统研究显然是埃克哈特热衷的领域，当然，这也是他谋生的方式；但他的真正热情可能在于科学探索。从某种意义上说，交易及其相关研究为他提供了资金支持，使他能够开展那些令他着迷的科学研究项目。他热衷于探究那些至今仍困扰科学家的重大悖论。量子力学尤其引起了他的兴趣，尤其是那些违背常识的贝尔定理——该定理表明，在两个相隔甚远的粒子系统之间，即使没有任何可能的相互作用，对其中一个系统的测量仍能影响到另一个系统。进化是他的另一个研究领域，他试图解答关于有性生殖的谜题：为什么自然界会演化出有性生殖这种方式？在有性生殖中，生物只传递自身一半的基因，而在无性生殖中却能传递100%的基因？或许他最深入的研究方向是理解时间的概念。当我采访埃克哈特时，他正在撰写一本关于时间本质的书籍（他的基本观点是时间的流逝只是一种错觉）。Eckhardt brings many strengths to the art of trading system design: years of experience as a trader both on and off the floor, an obviously keen analytical mind, and rigorous mathematical training. This combination gives Eckhardt an edge over most other trading system designers.埃克哈特在交易系统设计领域拥有诸多优势：他既有多年在交易所现场交易的经验，也有在交易所外进行交易的经验；他具备敏锐的分析能力，并且接受了系统的数学训练。这些优势使埃克哈特在众多交易系统设计师中脱颖而出。-

The Silence of the Turtles Picture an oak-paneled English drawing room. Two obviously wealthy gentlemen sit in their armchairs facing a roaring fire, puffing on their pipes and discussing their philosophy of trading. “It is my proposition, Colin, that anyone can be taught to be a superior trader. There is nothing magical about it. There is no rare talent involved. It is simply a matter of being taught the appropriate rules and following those rules. There is no question in my mind that I could train virtually anyone to make a fortune trading.” “That is nonsense, Duncan. You just think your trading success is due to your system. What you do not realize is that you have a special talent. You could print out your rules in twelve-inch-high letters and have people read them every day for a year, and they still would not be able to do what you do in the markets. Your success is a function of your talent. It cannot be taught!” “Well, Colin, this must be the hundredth time we’ve had this discu

Certainly no trading experience. However, while I was working for TSR, I came up with the idea of creating a commodity game. I thought that the commodity markets had all the necessary ingredients for making a successful game. To get the background information, I had sent away for lots of exchange publications. I also took an extension course, which involved six evening sessions taught by a commodity broker. So I had a rudimentary understanding of the commodity markets, but nothing more.当然，我没有交易经验。不过，在我为TSR公司工作的时候，我萌生了开发一款商品交易类游戏的想法。我认为商品市场具备打造成功游戏的全部要素。为了获取相关背景信息，我订阅了许多交易所发布的刊物，还参加了一个进修课程，该课程由一位商品经纪人主讲，共包含六次晚间授课。因此，我对商品市场有了一些基本的了解，但仅限于此而已。 As I understand it, there were over a thousand applicants and only thirteen candidates were selected. Why do you believe you were chosen?据我所知，有超过一千名申请人，但最终只选出了十三名候选人。你认为自己为什么会被选中呢？ To my knowledge, I was the only candidate that had worked for a game company. I believe the fact that my background was different from the others helped me get noticed. Also, a lot of commodity trading is based on game theory and probability. Therefore, it’s not much of a jump to believe that someone with experience in that area might bring something to the table.据我所知，我是唯一一位有游戏公司工作经验的候选人。我认为，我的背景与其他候选人不同，这有助于我脱颖而出。此外，很多商品交易都基于博弈论和概率论的原理。因此，不难理解：一个在该领域有经验的人肯定能为团队带来一些有价值的见解或能力。
Only about one out of a hundred respondents to the ad were ultimately chosen for the training program. Do you have any idea why you made the final selection cut?在所有收到广告邀请的受访者中，最终只有大约百分之一的人被选入了培训项目。你知道自己做出最终选拔决定的原因吗？ Although they weren’t looking for people with trading experience, by the same token, being a trader didn’t rule you out either. I think that insofar as I did have the trading background, the fact that my philosophy about the markets was similar to Dennis’s probably helped out. Also, and I’m just speculating, I think that Dennis might have been curious to see how somebody with my academic background—an MIT engineering degree—would work out.虽然他们并不特别寻找有交易经验的人，但同样地，拥有交易经验的人也不一定不符合他们的要求。我认为，由于我确实具备交易方面的背景，而且我对市场的看法与丹尼斯的观点相似，这可能对我有所帮助。另外，这只是我的猜测，我觉得丹尼斯可能很想看看像我这样拥有学术背景（麻省理工学院工程学位）的人会如何进行交易。

Monroe Trout THE BEST RETURN THAT LOW RISK CAN BUY I first met Monroe Trout several years ago, when a broker in my firm, who was trying to land Trout’s account, brought him by as part of the company tour. I knew that Trout was a commodity trading advisor (CTA) new to the business, but I didn’t know much else. Subsequently, I often heard Trout’s name mentioned as one of the younger CTAs who was doing very well. I didn’t realize how well until I started to work on this book. In consulting the quarterly issue of Managed Accounts Reports while doing research for this book, I found that in terms of return/risk measurements, Trout’s performance was the best of the more than one hundred managers covered. There were a few who exhibited a larger average annual return, and fewer still with smaller drawdowns (although these CTAs had dramatically lower returns), but no one came close to matching his combination of return to risk. Over the five-year period surveyed, his average return was 67 percen

That summer job sparked my interest in the markets. By my sophomore year at Harvard, I knew that I wanted to be a trader. I took whatever courses they had on the markets. I did my senior thesis on the stock index futures market.那份暑期工作激发了我对金融市场的兴趣。到了哈佛大学大二那年，我已经明确了自己想要成为一名交易员。于是我参加了学校里所有与金融市场相关的课程，并以股票指数期货市场为研究对象完成了我的毕业论文。 What was the conclusion of your thesis?你的论文得出了什么结论？ The most important conclusion was that the probability of very large price changes, while still small, was much greater than might be assumed based on standard statistical assumptions. Therefore, a risk control methodology must be prepared to deal with situations that statistically might seem nearly impossible, because they’re not.最重要的结论是：虽然发生幅度巨大的价格变动的概率仍然很小，但这一概率实际上要比基于标准统计假设所推测的值要高得多。因此，必须制定相应的风险控制措施，以应对那些在统计上看来似乎几乎不可能发生的情况——因为实际上这些情况是完全可能发生的。
You graduated with honors from Harvard. I assume that you probably could have had your pick of any graduate school in the country. Didn’t you hesitate giving up that opportunity?你以优异的成绩从哈佛大学毕业。我想，你本来完全可以选择全国任何一所研究生院继续深造。但你却毫不犹豫地放弃了那个机会，是吗？ Not at all. I knew what I wanted to do—trade. Graduate school would only have delayed that goal. I never considered it.一点也不。我清楚地知道自己想做什么——从事贸易工作。读研究生只会推迟实现这个目标的进程，所以我从未考虑过读研究生的可能性。
Do you sleep better on days when you win than on days when you lose?在获胜的日子里，你的睡眠质量是否比在失败的日子里更好？ Not necessarily. In fact, I probably sleep worse when I’m doing well, because I get too excited.不一定吧。事实上，当我取得好成绩的时候，我的睡眠反而会变得更差，因为我会变得过于兴奋。
Do you use charts?你会使用图表吗？ I look at charts primarily to figure out where traders are going to get interested in a market. I know the types of patterns they like to look at.我查看图表主要是为了弄清楚交易者们会在哪个市场领域产生兴趣。我知道他们喜欢关注哪些类型的图表形态。 You use both discretionary and system trading. Do you have anything to say about the merits or drawbacks of each approach?你同时使用自主交易和系统交易这两种方式。对于这两种方法的优缺点，你有什么想说的吗？ The bottom line is that you need an edge. One of the ways you can get an edge is to find a successful system. However, if you’re just a pure systems player and you start managing large amounts of money, you’re going to find that your transaction costs start to eliminate a good deal of your profits. In general, it’s probably best to be somewhere between a pure discretionary trader and a pure system trader. As I mentioned before, you can help your systems by using some discretion in the entry and exit of positions.归根结底，你需要在竞争中拥有优势。获得这种优势的一种方法就是找到一套行之有效的交易系统。然而，如果你仅仅依赖系统进行交易，同时开始管理大量资金，你就会发现交易成本会大幅侵蚀你的利润。一般来说，介于纯粹的自主交易者和纯粹的系统交易者之间可能才是最佳选择。正如我之前所说，你可以在决定买入或卖出时运用一些自主判断，从而帮助你的交易系统发挥更好的作用。 Have you looked at commercial systems at all?你有没有看过任何商业化的系统呢？ Sure, we’ve bought lots of them. I used to evaluate the systems myself, but now I have other people in the office do it. We have never used any of these systems as is; we use them to give us ideas in constructing our own systems.当然，我们买了很多这样的系统。过去这些系统的评估工作都是我亲自负责的，但现在办公室里已经有其他人来负责这项工作了。我们从未直接使用过这些系统，而是利用它们来获取灵感，从而开发出我们自己的系统。 Do you have any advice for the public about systems offered for sale?对于市场上出售的这些系统，您有没有什么建议想要告诉公众呢？ Join Club 3000. [This organization issues a newsletter composed of members’ letters that discuss systems and other aspects of trading. The name derives from its origins. Club 3000 was formed in frustration by members who had paid approximately $3,000 for a system they felt was essentially worthless and decided to get together to share information about various systems.] I would also subscribe to such publications as Futures, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and Commodity Traders Consumers Report for their reviews on systems. Also, once you buy a system, make sure you test it on your own data.加入3000俱乐部吧。这个组织会发行一份通讯，其中收录了会员们分享的有关各种交易系统及相关内容的文章。其名称也正源于它的起源：一些会员当初花费了大约3000美元购买了某些交易系统，但发现这些系统实际上毫无价值，于是他们决定联合起来，互相交流有关这些系统的信息。我也经常会订阅《Futures》、《股票与商品的技术分析》以及《商品交易者消费者报告》等刊物，因为这些刊物会对各种交易系统进行评价。另外，一旦你购买了某个交易系统，一定要用自己的数据对其进行测试，以确保它的有效性。 In other words, don’t take the vendor’s word for it. Do you think that many of the claims for systems are overblown?换句话说，不要轻信供应商的说法。你认为，那些关于各种系统的宣传言论大多言过其实吧？ Yes.是的。 Is that because of deliberate misrepresentation or are most of the vendors actually fooling themselves?这是由于故意提供虚假信息，还是因为大多数供应商其实都在自欺欺人呢？ Some of the system claims may actually be partially legitimate. However, I usually find these systems don’t have enough observations to be statistically significant. Also, frequently, the systems base their percentage return claims on the minimum exchange margin requirements.其中一些系统所宣称的效果实际上在某种程度上是成立的。然而，我通常会发现，这些系统所拥有的观测数据数量不足以使它们的结论在统计学上具有显著性。此外，这些系统往往还会将它们所宣称的百分比回报率建立在最低交易保证金要求这一基础上。 I understand. Doing that gives the systems extraordinary leverage and the ads only talk about the return side; they don’t discuss the risk side.我明白了。这样做确实会让这些系统拥有巨大的影响力，而那些广告也只强调了收益方面，却从未提及其中的风险。
Right. I made the same mistake in my senior thesis. I based my percentage returns on the assumption of an account size equal to double the exchange minimum margin requirement, which was a grossly inadequate sum. In reality, if you ever tried to trade that way, you would go broke, because the drawdowns are too big.没错，我在写毕业论文时也犯了同样的错误。我在计算投资回报率时，假设账户资金规模相当于交易所规定的最低保证金要求的两倍，但实际上这个假设是完全不合理的。事实上，如果真的按照这种方式进行交易，肯定会导致亏损，因为资金回撤幅度会太大，最终会导致资金耗尽。 Do you basically believe that if somebody developed a really good system they wouldn’t be selling it?你是不是认为，如果有人真的开发出了一个非常优秀的系统，他们就不会去出售它呢？ To some degree, I believe that. Sure, it’s possible that a system developer may not have any money, but if the system is that good, he should be able to convince friends, family, anybody to put some money into the system and trade it.在某种程度上，我确实这么认为。当然，也有可能某个系统开发者确实没有任何资金，但如果他的系统确实很优秀，他应该能够说服朋友、家人，或者任何愿意支持他的人，为这个系统投入资金并参与交易。
I guess by the time I decided to go off on my own I was fairly confident. I knew I had to make money just to pay my rent.我想，当我决定独自创业的时候，我已经相当有信心了。我知道自己必须赚钱才能支付房租。 Was that confidence derived from the consistency of your returns?这种自信是否源于你投资回报的稳定性呢？ Yes, I knew I was getting statistically significant results.是的，我知道自己得到的结果在统计学上是具有显著意义的。
You come from an academic background and even did your thesis on a subject related to the markets. I’m sure you’re quite aware that most of the academic community still holds to the efficient market hypothesis. Obviously, what you’re doing couldn’t be done if that theory were right.你具有学术背景，甚至还撰写过一篇与市场相关的论文。我相信你很清楚，大多数学术界人士仍然信奉有效市场假说。显然，如果这一理论是正确的，你所做的事情根本就无法实现。 The markets are clearly not a random walk. The markets are not even efficient because that assumption implies you can’t make an above-average return. Since some people can do that, I disagree with the assumption.显然，市场并非遵循随机游走规律运行。市场甚至也谈不上是有效率的，因为这种假设意味着人们不可能获得高于平均水平的回报；然而既然确实有人能够做到这一点，我就不同意这种假设了。 But still, I’m sure a lot of your professors believe in the efficient market hypothesis.不过，我敢肯定，你们的很多教授都是相信有效市场假说的。 Right, and that’s probably why they’re professors and why I’m making money doing what I’m doing. Also, I think it’s amazing what you can do when you have real money on the line. A person in an academic setting might think that they have tested all possible types of systems. However, when you have real money on the line, you can start to think pretty creatively. There is always something else to test. I think that the academic community just hasn’t tested many of the approaches that are viable. Certainly, if you just spend a short time doing an academic study, you’re not going to find anything significant. It can’t be any other way. If it were, everyone would be rich. But if you spend every day of your life researching the markets and have adequate computer support, you can find stuff that works.没错，也许正是因为这个原因，他们才能成为教授，而我也能通过自己现在所做的事情来赚钱。另外，我认为，当真的有金钱利害关系牵涉其中时，人们确实能够做出一些惊人的事情。在学术环境中工作的人可能会认为自己已经测试过所有可能的系统类型了；然而，当真的有金钱风险需要承担时，人们就会开始以更加富有创造性的方式去思考问题，总会发现一些值得进一步测试的新方法。我认为，学术界其实还没有对很多真正可行的方法进行过足够的测试。当然，如果你只是花很短的时间进行学术研究，那么你是不可能发现任何有重大意义的结果的——事实本来就是如此。如果真的能找到什么有价值的东西，那么所有人早就发财了。但是，如果你把一生的时间都用来研究市场，并且拥有足够的计算机支持，那么你确实有可能找到一些行之有效的方法。
What are the traits of a successful trader?一个成功的交易者应该具备哪些特质呢？ A successful trader is rational, analytical, able to control emotions, practical, and profit oriented.一个成功的交易者应该是理性、善于分析问题、能够控制自己的情绪、务实且以盈利为目标的人。

Al Weiss THE HUMAN CHART ENCYCLOPEDIA In terms of return/risk ratio, Al Weiss may well have the single best long-term track record for a commodity trading advisor. Since he began trading in 1982 as AZF Commodity Management, Weiss has averaged 52 percent annually. One thousand dollars invested with Weiss in 1982 would have been worth almost $53,000 at the end of 1991. However, returns are only half the story. The truly impressive element in Weiss’s track record is that these high gains were achieved with extremely small equity drawdowns. During this entire period, the largest single equity drawdown witnessed by Weiss was 17 percent in 1986. In the past four years (1988–91), Weiss has honed his risk control to truly astounding standards: during this period, his worst annual drawdown averaged under 5 percent, while his average annual return exceeded 29 percent. Despite his exemplary track record, Weiss has kept a very low profile. Until 1991, Weiss repeatedly refused to grant any intervie

Despite his exemplary track record, Weiss has kept a very low profile. Until 1991, Weiss repeatedly refused to grant any interviews. He explains this by saying, “I didn’t feel my methods were proven until I had realized at least a decade of superior performance.” He also felt that interviews would attract the wrong type of investors. At this point, that consideration is no longer a concern, as Weiss is handling as much money as he feels he can manage without negatively affecting his performance (approximately $100 million).尽管有着如此出色的业绩记录，魏斯却一直保持低调，从不接受任何采访。直到1991年，他仍然多次拒绝接受采访。他这样解释自己的态度：“直到我的投资方法让我取得了至少十年的优异业绩，我才确信这些方法是有效的。”此外，他还认为接受采访会吸引那些不合适的投资者。不过现在，这个问题已经不再存在了，因为魏斯目前管理的资金规模已经达到了他认为自己能够妥善运作的程度——大约1亿美元——而这种规模并不会对他的投资业绩产生任何负面影响。
Although Weiss now regularly turns away new investors, he will occasionally make an exception. As he explains, “Sometimes I take on a small account [$100,000] if I feel the person is truly sincere. I still get a kick out of taking on a small account and making it compound. Just recently, I accepted a new investor because I was impressed that he had gone through the track records of five hundred CTAs before making a selection. Ironically, at the same time I was talking to this person, I also received a call from a French bank that wanted to invest $30 million. I turned down the bank, but I accepted the small account’s $100,000 investment.”虽然魏斯现在通常会拒绝新的投资者，但偶尔也会破例接受一些请求。他解释说：“有时候，如果我觉得某位投资者确实很真诚，我也会接受他们的小额投资——比如10万美元。管理这样的小额账户并看着其资金逐渐增值，仍然让我感到很有成就感。就在最近，我接受了一位新投资者的请求，因为我觉得他非常谨慎，在做出投资决定之前，仔细研究了500位投资顾问的业绩记录。具有讽刺意味的是，在我和这位投资者交谈的同时，还接到了一家法国银行的电话，他们表示愿意投资3000万美元。不过我最终还是拒绝了那家银行的提议，而是接受了那位小额投资者提供的10万美元投资。”
Weiss’s highly individualistic approach doesn’t lend itself readily to generalizations. Certainly his comments should inspire those inclined to cyclical analysis, but I would add that other expert traders, such as Eckhardt, argue the opposite viewpoint rather persuasively. Perhaps his most significant input is that the reliability of chart analysis can be greatly enhanced by viewing classic chart patterns as parts of more complex combinations, rather than in isolation, as is typically done. Weiss also emphasizes that students of chart analysis need to conduct their research much further back in history than is usually the case. In markets in which he was able to obtain the data, Weiss has extended his chart studies as far back as 150 years ago.韦斯这种极具个人特色的分析方法并不适合被普遍化应用。当然，他的观点确实会激发那些倾向于进行周期分析的人的兴趣，但我也要指出，其他一些专家交易者，比如埃克哈特，也提出了截然不同的观点，而且他们的论点相当有说服力。或许韦斯最重要的贡献在于：通过将经典的图表形态视为更复杂组合的一部分来进行分析，而不是像通常那样将它们孤立地来看待，这样就能大大提高图表分析的可靠性。韦斯还强调，那些从事图表分析研究的人需要将研究范围延伸到更久远的历史时期。在那些他能够获取相关数据的市场中，韦斯的图表分析研究甚至追溯到了150年前。In essence, I think Weiss is successful because of the combination of a vast amount of research in analyzing charts and a knack for seeing relatively complex patterns. Ultimately, that line of reasoning leads to the conclusion that you, too, can be successful if you can read a chart with the same skill as Weiss. Not very helpful information, is it? However, Weiss’s consistent streak of high annual returns and low maximum drawdowns provides compelling proof that pure chart analysis can yield an extraordinarily effective trading approach.本质上来说，我认为韦斯之所以能够取得成功，是因为他在分析图表方面进行了大量研究，同时还具备识别那些相对复杂的图表形态的能力。归根结底，这种推理方式让我们得出这样一个结论：如果你也能像韦斯那样熟练地解读图表，那么你同样可以取得成功。不过，这个结论其实并没有带来太多实质性的帮助，对吧？然而，韦斯长期以来一直保持着较高的年收益以及较低的最大回撤幅度，这一事实充分证明了：纯粹依靠图表分析，确实可以形成一种非常有效的交易方法。

Stanley Druckenmiller THE ART OF TOP-DOWN INVESTING Stanley Druckenmiller belongs to the rarefied world of managers who control multibillion-dollar portfolios. Achieving a near 40 percent return on a $100 million portfolio is impressive, but realizing that performance level on a multibillion-dollar fund is incredible. In the three years since he assumed active management control of the Quantum Fund from his mentor and idol, George Soros, Druckenmiller has realized an average annual return of over 38 percent on assets ranging between $2.0 billion and $3.5 billion. Druckenmiller has been on a fast track ever since he decided to for-sake graduate school for the real world. After less than one year as a stock analyst for the Pittsburgh National Bank, Druckenmiller was promoted to the position of director of equity research. Druckenmiller dismisses his sudden promotion as the act of an eccentric, albeit brilliant, division manager. However, one suspects there was more to it, particularly in

The longest-running measure of Druckenmiller’s performance in the markets is his own Duquesne fund. Since its inception in 1980, the fund has averaged 37 percent annually. Druckenmiller stresses that the early years of Duquesne’s performance are not directly relevant since the fund’s structure changed completely in mid-1986 to accommodate the flexible trading approach he now uses. Measured from this later starting point, Druckenmiller’s average annual return has been 45 percent.衡量德鲁肯米勒在市场中的表现最有效的指标，就是他管理的Duquesne基金。自1980年成立以来，该基金的年均回报率达到了37%。德鲁肯米勒强调，Duquesne基金在成立初期的表现并不具有直接参考价值，因为该基金的运作结构在1986年中期发生了根本性变化，这些变化正是为了适应他当时所采用的灵活交易策略。如果从这一新的起点来计算的话，德鲁肯米勒的年均回报率实际上为45%。I interviewed Druckenmiller at his co-op apartment on a weekend day. I was surprised by his youth; I had hardly expected someone who had been managing one of the world’s largest funds for several years to still be in his thirties. As we relaxed in the living room, our conversation began with Druckenmiller’s story of how he got started in the business.我在一个周末去他位于合作公寓里的住所与他进行了采访。他的年轻程度让我感到十分惊讶——我原本几乎没想到，这样一个已经管理过世界上规模最大的基金之一多年的人，竟然还只有三十多岁。当我们坐在客厅里放松休息时，我们的谈话从他讲述自己是如何进入这个行业的开始。 I had enrolled in graduate school to study for an economics degree. However, I found the program overly quantitative and theoretical, with little emphasis on real-life applications. I was very disappointed and dropped out in the second semester. I took a job as a management trainee at the Pittsburgh National Bank, with the idea that the program would provide me with a broad overview that would help me to decide on an area of focus.我原本报名参加了研究生课程，打算攻读经济学学位。然而，我发现这个课程体系过于注重定量分析和理论研究，而几乎不涉及实际应用方面的内容。这让我感到非常失望，于是就在第二学期退学了。之后，我在匹兹堡国家银行担任管理培训生，希望这个工作能让我对各个领域有一个大致的了解，从而帮助我确定自己应该专注于哪个方向。I had been at the bank for several months when I received a call from the manager in the trust department. “I hear you attended the University of Michigan,” he said. When I confirmed his statement, he said, “Great.” He asked whether I had an M.B.A. I told him that I did not. He said, “That’s even better. Come on up; you’re hired.”我在那家银行工作了几个月之后，信托部门的经理给我打来了电话。他说：“听说你毕业于密歇根大学。”当我确认了他的说法后，他接着说道：“太好了。”他又问我是否拥有MBA学位，我告诉他并没有。他说：“那反而更好。过来吧，你已经被录用了。”
The director of investments was Speros Drelles, the person who had hired me. He was brilliant, with a great aptitude for teaching, but he was also quite eccentric. When I was twenty-five and had been in the department for only about a year, he summoned me into his office and announced that he was going to make me the director of equity research. This was quite a bizarre move, since my boss was about fifty years old and had been with the bank for over twenty-five years. Moreover, all the other analysts had M.B.A.’s and had been in the department longer than I had.投资部的主管是斯佩罗斯·德雷勒斯——也就是聘请我的那个人。他非常聪明，具有出色的教学能力，但同时也有些古怪。在我25岁、在那个部门工作才大约一年的时候，他把我叫到他的办公室，宣布要任命我为股票研究部的主管。这个决定实在有些奇怪，因为我的上司当时已经50岁了，在这家银行工作了25年以上；而且其他所有分析师都拥有MBA学位，他们在该部门的工作时间也比我长。“You know why I’m doing this, don’t you?” he asked.“你知道我为什么要这么做，对吧？”他问道。“No,” I replied.“不，”我回答道。“For the same reason they send eighteen-year-olds into war.”“出于同样的原因，他们才会让18岁的年轻人去参战。”“Why is that?” I asked.“为什么会是这样？”我问道。“Because they’re too dumb to know not to charge.” Drelles continued, “The small cap [capitalization] stocks have been in a bear market for ten years [this conversation transpired in 1978], and I think there’s going to be a huge, liquidity-driven bull market sometime in the next decade. Frankly, I have a lot of scars from the past ten years, while you don’t. I think we’ll make a great team because you’ll be too stupid and inexperienced to know not to try to buy everything. That other guy out there,” he said, referring to my boss, the exiting director of equity research, “is just as stale as I am.”“因为他们太蠢了，根本不知道不该去购买这些股票。”德雷尔斯继续说道，“那些小盘股的行情已经处于熊市状态长达十年之久了（这段对话发生在1978年），我认为在接下来的十年里，会有一次由流动性推动的、规模巨大的牛市。坦白说，过去十年给我留下了很多伤痕，而你却没有。我觉得我们会是一支非常出色的团队，因为你们太蠢、太缺乏经验了，根本不知道不该试图购买所有股票。而那个家伙……”他说着，指的是我的老板，那位即将离职的股票研究主管，“他和我也一样，已经变得过时了。”
Obviously, Drelles didn’t just make you head of research because of your youth. There must have been more to it.显然，德雷尔斯任命你为研究负责人，并不是仅仅因为你年轻。其中肯定还有其他原因。 I had a natural aptitude for the business, and I think he was impressed with the job I did analyzing the banking industry. For example, at the time, Citicorp was going crazy with international loans, and I had done a major bearish piece, which proved to be correct. Although I hadn’t taken a business course, I was fairly lucid in economics and probably made a good impression with my grasp of international money flows.我对这一行业天生就具备一定的天赋，我认为他对我在分析银行业务方面所做的工作印象深刻。例如，当时花旗银行在国际贷款业务上表现得非常活跃，而我当时撰写了一篇较为负面的分析报告，后来证明我的分析是正确的。虽然我并没有学习过商业相关的课程，但我在经济学领域有着相当扎实的知识基础，因此我对国际资金流动情况的理解也让他觉得我很出色。
How can you use valuation for timing? Hadn’t the market been overdone in terms of valuation for some time before you reversed from short to long?你究竟是如何利用估值来判断买卖时机的呢？在你从做空转向做多之前，市场的估值情况难道不已经处于被高估的状态一段时间了吗？ I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to change the market direction.我从不利用估值来判断市场走势。我选择根据流动性因素以及技术分析来决定买入或卖出的时机。估值只能告诉我：一旦有某种因素出现并改变市场走势，市场还能进一步发展到什么程度。
I couldn’t; that’s why I left. During this entire time period, I had been talking to Soros on an ongoing basis. The more I talked to him, the more I began to realize that everything people had told me about him was wrong.我做不到；因此我才离开了。在这段时间里，我一直在与索罗斯保持联系。与他交谈得越多，我就越意识到，人们告诉我的关于他的那些事情都是错误的。 What had they told you?他们告诉了你些什么？ There were all these stories about turnover at the firm. George had a reputation for paying people well but then firing them. Whenever I mentioned that Soros had tried to hire me, my mentors in the business adamantly advised me not to go.关于这家公司的员工流动情况，有很多这样的传闻。乔治以给员工高薪却随后又将他们解雇而闻名。每当我提到索罗斯曾试图聘请我时，我在商界遇到的那些导师都会坚决劝我不要接受这份工作。Soros had actually started referring to me as his “successor” before I ever joined the firm. When I went to Soros’s home to be interviewed, his son informed me that I was his tenth “successor.” None of the others had lasted too long. He thought it was hysterical. And when I arrived at Soros’s office the next day, the staff all referred to me as “the successor.” They also thought it was very funny.其实，在我加入这家公司之前，索罗斯就已经开始称我为他的“接班人”了。当我去索罗斯的家中接受面试时，他的儿子告诉我，我是他的第十位“接班人”；而之前的那些“接班人”都没有能在他身边待太久。他认为这件事非常有趣。第二天当我来到索罗斯的办公室时，所有员工也都开始称我为“接班人”，他们同样觉得这很有趣。 Did you consider simply going back and managing your Duquesne Fund full-time after you left Dreyfus?在离开德雷福斯之后，你有没有考虑过回去，然后全职负责管理你的杜肯基金呢？ That was certainly an option. In fact, Duquesne’s assets under management had grown tremendously without any marketing at all simply because of all the publicity I had received from the strong performance of the Dreyfus funds.那确实是一个可行的选择。事实上，由于我的这些投资产品表现优异，因此杜肯资产管理公司管理的资产规模在完全没有进行任何营销活动的情况下依然得到了大幅增长。 Why didn’t you go that route?你为什么没有选择那条路呢？ Quite simply, because George Soros had become my idol. He seemed to be about twenty years ahead of me in implementing the trading philosophy I had adopted: holding a core group of stocks long and a core group of stocks short and then using leverage to trade S&P futures, bonds, and currencies. I had learned a tremendous amount just in my conversations with Soros. I thought it was a no-lose situation. The worst thing that could happen was that I would join Soros and he would fire me in a year—in which case I would have received the last chapter of my education and still have had the option of managing Duquesne. In the best case, it would all work out.简单来说，是因为乔治·索罗斯已经成为了我的偶像。在他实践我所采纳的交易理念时，他似乎比我领先了大约二十年：他会长期持有某些股票，同时也会做空另一部分股票，然后利用杠杆来交易标准普尔期货、债券和货币。仅仅通过与索罗斯的交谈，我就学到了很多东西。我认为这种合作方案毫无风险可言——最坏的情况也不过是我会加入索罗斯的团队，但一年后被他解雇；不过在这种情况下，我至少已经接受了最重要的教育，而且仍然有机会继续管理杜肯集团。而最好的结果当然是，一切都能顺利进行。
rather than a help if he’s engaging you actively enough to break your trading rhythm. You just can’t have two cooks in the kitchen; it doesn’t work. Part of it was my fault because he would make recommendations and I would be intimidated. After all, how do you disagree with a man with a track record like his?这段关系的前六个月充满了波折。虽然我们的交易理念大致相似，但我们的策略却完全不兼容。在我刚开始从事这项工作时，他原本打算担任我的指导老师——而他确实是一个风格激进、指导方式强硬的导师。在我看来，乔治·索罗斯是有史以来最伟大的投资者。然而，如果这位世界上最伟大的投资者频繁地干扰你的交易决策，扰乱你的交易节奏，那么他的指导反而会成为一种障碍，而不会带来任何帮助。俗话说“一个厨房里不能同时有两个厨师”，这种情况根本行不通。其中一部分责任也在于我自身：每当他提出建议时，我都会感到害怕和不安。毕竟，对于一个拥有如此辉煌成就的人，你怎么可能敢于提出反对意见呢？Events came to a head in August 1989 when Soros sold out a bond position that I had put on. He had never done that before. To make matters worse, I really had a strong conviction on the trade. Needless to say, I was fairly upset. At that point, we had our first let-it-all-out discussion.1989年8月，事情发展到了顶点：索罗斯卖掉了我持有的那批债券。他以前从未这样做过。更糟糕的是，我对这笔交易原本抱有极大的信心。可想而知，我当时感到非常沮丧。就在那时，我们进行了第一次激烈的争论。Basically, Soros decided that he was going to stay out of my hair for six months. Frankly, I wasn’t too optimistic about the arrangement because I thought that he had been trying to do that all along but was simply incapable of it. The situation was saved, however, by events heating up in Eastern Europe in late 1989. As you may know, transforming Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union from communist to capitalist systems has been Soros’s main endeavor in recent years. He has set up foundations in eleven countries to help achieve this goal. With George off in Eastern Europe, he couldn’t meddle even if he wanted to.基本上，索罗斯决定在接下来的六个月里不再干涉我的事务。坦白说，我对这种安排并不抱太大希望，因为我认为他其实一直都在试图不干涉我的事情，但只是根本做不到而已。然而，1989年底东欧局势的紧张发展挽救了这种局面。如你所知，近年来将东欧和苏联从共产主义制度转变为资本主义制度一直是索罗斯的主要奋斗目标。他在十一个国家建立了基金会，以帮助实现这一目标。既然乔治去了东欧，即使他想干涉我的事务，也根本无从下手了。
Everything started to come together at that time. Not only was I trading on my own without any interference, but that same Eastern European situation led to my first truly major trade for Soros’s Quantum Fund. I never had more conviction about any trade than I did about the long side of the Deutsche mark when the Berlin Wall came down. One of the reasons I was so bullish on the Deutsche mark was a radical currency theory proposed by George Soros in his book, The Alchemy of Finance. His theory was that if a huge deficit were accompanied by an expansionary fiscal policy and tight monetary policy, the country’s currency would actually rise. The dollar provided a perfect test case in the 1981–84 period. At the time, the general consensus was that the dollar would decline because of the huge budget deficit. However, because money was attracted into the country by a tight monetary policy, the dollar actually went sharply higher.就在那个时候，所有事情开始朝着预期的方向发展。我不仅能够独立进行交易而不会受到任何干扰，而且正是当时东欧发生的那些事件，为我为索罗斯的量子基金完成了第一笔真正重要的交易。在我进行过的任何交易中，我对“做多德国马克”这一决策的信心都是最坚定的——尤其是在柏林墙倒塌的时候。我之所以对德国马克持如此乐观的态度，其中一个原因就是乔治·索罗斯在他的著作《金融炼金术》中提出的一种激进的理论。他认为，如果一个国家出现了巨额财政赤字，但同时实行扩张性的财政政策和紧缩的货币政策，那么该国的货币汇率实际上反而会上升。在1981年至1984年期间，美元为人们提供了一个完美的测试案例。当时，人们的普遍看法是，由于巨额预算赤字，美元汇率将会下跌。然而，由于紧缩的货币政策吸引了大量资金流入该国，美元汇率实际上却大幅上升了。When the Berlin Wall came down, it was one of those situations that I could see as clear as day. West Germany was about to run up a huge budget deficit to finance the rebuilding of East Germany. At the same time, the Bundesbank was not going to tolerate any inflation. I went headlong into the Deutsche mark. It turned out to be a terrific trade.当柏林墙倒塌时，我清楚地看到了当时的种种情况：西德为了资助东德的重建，将会面临巨大的预算赤字；而德国联邦银行绝不会容忍任何形式的通货膨胀。于是，我毫不犹豫地投资了德国马克，结果这次投资取得了巨大的成功。

Gil Blake THE MASTER OF CONSISTENCY Gil Blake calls his management company Twenty Plus. This name ties into the logo on his business card and stationery, which shows a probability curve with a +20 percent return falling two standard deviations to the left of the mean. For those not statistically inclined, the implication is that he has a 95 percent probability of realizing an annual return of at least 20 percent. The sketch of the probability curve does not extend to a 0 percent return, let alone into negative returns—which says a great deal about Blake’s confidence. Blake’s confidence is obviously not misplaced. In the twelve years since he began trading, he had averaged a 45 percent annual return. Although this is an impressive figure, the most striking element of Blake’s performance is his consistency. True to his logo, he has never had a year with a return below 20 percent. In fact, his worst performance was a 24 percent gain in 1984. But even in that subpar year, Blake had a conso

How many different sectors might you invest in on a given day?在某一天，你可以投资于多少不同的行业或领域呢？ I traded one sector at a time.我是一次只交易一个行业或领域。 Did you consider diversifying your money by trading different sectors at the same time?你是否考虑过通过同时投资不同行业来分散自己的投资风险？ I’m not a big fan of diversification. My answer to that question is that you can diversify very well by just making enough trades per year. If the odds are 70 percent in your favor and you make fifty trades, it’s very difficult to have a down year.我并不是特别推崇多元化投资策略。对于这个问题，我的回答是：只要你每年进行足够多的交易，就可以实现有效的多元化投资。如果胜算为70%，而你每年进行50笔交易，那么出现亏损年度的概率就会变得非常低。
Are there any clients that you’ve dropped completely?有没有哪些客户是你彻底放弃服务的？ One of my clients was someone I didn’t know personally. He opened an account with me in response to another client’s recommendation. The money he invested represented an inheritance his wife had received, and he was very nervous about the account. I couldn’t have started in a worse situation. It was the fall of 1985, and I had two disastrous trades in healthcare. I entered the first trade on the day the industrialized nations announced a plan to weaken the dollar. The dollar cracked and drug stocks took off. The next day, everyone was saying the plan wouldn’t work; the dollar rebounded, drug stocks got clobbered, and I was out with a big loss. Only about a week later, I went back into healthcare. The following day, Hospital Corporation of America reported surprisingly bad earnings, and the sector got hit extremely hard again.我的一位客户其实是我并不认识的人。他是应另一位客户的推荐才在我这里开立账户的。他投入的资金其实是他妻子继承来的财产，因此他对这个账户感到非常紧张。对我来说，刚开始这份工作的处境再糟糕也不为过了。那是1985年秋天，我在医疗保健领域进行了两笔极其失败的交易：第一笔交易是在那些工业化国家宣布计划削弱美元价值的当天进行的。由于这一计划的实施，美元汇率下跌，制药公司的股价随之飙升；然而第二天，大家都认为这个计划不会成功，美元汇率反弹，制药公司的股价又暴跌，我因此蒙受了巨大的损失。大约一周后，我又重新进入了医疗保健领域进行投资。然而第二天，美国医院企业集团就公布了糟糕的业绩报告，整个医疗保健行业再次遭受了重创。 How big a hit were these trades?这些交易带来的影响究竟有多大呢？ About 2 or 3 percent each. Anyway, this particular client was extremely nervous about his investment. The account had gone from $70,000 down to about $67,000. I told him, “Don’t worry, I’ll cover 100 percent of your losses.” I went down to the bank and sent him a cashier’s check for $3,000. I told him, “If in two weeks we’re down $3,000, then I’ll send you another check. Just hold onto the check; it’s as good as cash.”大约各占2%到3%左右。总之，这位客户对他的投资情况感到非常紧张——他的账户资金从7万美元降到了大约6.7万美元。我告诉他：“别担心，我会承担你全部的损失。”于是我去了银行，给他开了一张3000美元的支票，并对他说：“如果两周后账户资金再次减少3000美元，我会再给你寄一张支票。你把这张支票收好，它和现金一样可以用来使用。” Normally, you wouldn’t make up the difference until the end of the year—is that right?通常情况下，这种差额是要等到年底才会进行补齐的，对吧？ That’s right, but this guy was so nervous that I always wanted him to have the $70,000. About a month later, the account was back over $70,000. I have to admit that I did inquire whether he cashed the check, and it turned out that he had. A year or two later, when I was reducing my clients, he was the first to go, because his actions were indicative of a lack of trust.没错，但那个家伙当时紧张得让我一直希望他能拿到那7万美元。大约一个月后，他的账户余额又重新超过了7万美元。我必须承认，我确实问过他是否已经把支票兑现了，结果发现他确实这么做了。一两年后，当我开始减少合作客户的数量时，他第一个被我从名单上划掉了，因为他的行为确实让人觉得他缺乏诚信。
What makes a good trader?什么才能造就一个优秀的交易者？ A critical ingredient is a maverick mind. It’s also important to have a blend between an artistic side and a scientific side. You need the artistic side to imagine, discover, and create trading strategies. You need the scientific side to translate those ideas into firm trading rules and to execute those rules.一个至关重要的因素就是那种特立独行的思维方式。同时，将艺术素养与科学思维相结合也同样重要。你需要艺术素养来发挥想象力，去发现并创造各种交易策略；而科学思维则能够帮助你将这些策略转化为具体的交易规则，并确保这些规则得到严格执行。
What advice would you give to a novice trader?你会给一位新手交易者哪些建议呢？ There are five basic steps to becoming a successful trader. First, focus on trading vehicles, strategies, and time horizons that suit your personality. Second, identify nonrandom price behavior, while recognizing that markets are random most of the time. Third, absolutely convince yourself that what you have found is statistically valid. Fourth, set up trading rules. Fifth, follow the rules. In a nutshell, it all comes down to: Do your own thing (independence); and do the right thing (discipline).要成为一名成功的交易者，需要遵循五个基本步骤。首先，选择那些符合你个人性格的交易工具、交易策略以及时间框架。其次，要识别那些非随机性的价格走势，同时也要认识到市场在大多数时间里其实都是处于随机波动状态的。第三，必须让自己确信自己所发现的那些规律在统计学上是成立的。第四，制定明确的交易规则。第五，严格遵守这些规则。归根结底，这一切都取决于两点：做自己想做的事（保持独立性），以及做正确的事（具备纪律性）。
At the core, the quality of open-mindedness is responsible for Blake’s success and, for that matter, his entire career. For many years, Blake sincerely believed that the markets were random. When confronted with contradictory evidence, he didn’t dig in his heels and argue his position—the reflexive response most people would have in such a situation. Instead, he researched the question, and when the evidence suggested that his prior views had been wrong, he changed his mind. The ability to change one’s mind is probably a key characteristic of the successful trader. Dogmatic and rigid personalities rarely, if ever, succeed in the markets.从根本上说，开放的心态才是布莱克取得成功、进而成就其整个职业生涯的关键所在。多年来，布莱克始终坚信市场运行具有随机性。当面对与自己观点相矛盾的证据时，他并没有固执己见、坚持自己的立场——这种反应才是大多数人在这种情况下会采取的。相反，他会深入研究这些问题，而当证据表明自己的先前看法是错误的时，他就会改变自己的想法。能够及时改变自己的观点，或许正是成功交易者的关键特质。那些固执己见、思想僵化的人，几乎从来都不会在市场中取得成功。

Victor Sperandeo MARKETS GROW OLD TOO Victor Sperandeo started his career on Wall Street straight out of high school. It was certainly an unglamorous beginning, working first as a minimum-wage quote boy and then switching to a slightly higher paying job as a statistical clerk for Standard & Poor’s. Sperandeo found this work, which basically involved copying and transferring columns of numbers, “stupifyingly boring.” He had a difficult time keeping his mind on his work. To his relief, he was eventually fired for making too many errors. After a stint at another nontrading job in a Wall Street accounting department, Sperandeo talked his way into an option trading position. Over the next two years, he was a dealer in the over-the-counter (OTC) options market, matching up buyers and sellers and “making the middle.” In the midst of the 1969 bear market, Sperandeo switched firms in a search for greater autonomy in his trading decisions. At this new firm, he was offered a percentage of the spr

Victor Sperandeo started his career on Wall Street straight out of high school. It was certainly an unglamorous beginning, working first as a minimum-wage quote boy and then switching to a slightly higher paying job as a statistical clerk for Standard & Poor’s. Sperandeo found this work, which basically involved copying and transferring columns of numbers, “stupifyingly boring.” He had a difficult time keeping his mind on his work. To his relief, he was eventually fired for making too many errors.维克托·斯佩兰德奥在高中毕业后便直接在华尔街开始了自己的职业生涯。这个起点显然并不光彩：他最初从事的是一份工资微薄的工作，只是负责抄写和整理数据；后来才转到了标准普尔公司，从事一份收入稍高的统计工作。然而，斯佩兰德奥发现这份工作其实非常无聊——他的工作内容基本上就是重复地抄写和整理数字，这让他感到极其乏味，也很难集中精力完成任务。幸运的是，最终他因为犯下了太多错误而被解雇了。After a stint at another nontrading job in a Wall Street accounting department, Sperandeo talked his way into an option trading position. Over the next two years, he was a dealer in the over-the-counter (OTC) options market, matching up buyers and sellers and “making the middle.”在华尔街的一个会计部门从事了一段时间与交易无关的工作之后，斯佩兰代奥通过自己的努力获得了一个从事期权交易的工作岗位。在接下来的两年里，他在场外期权市场上担任交易员，负责为买卖双方牵线搭桥，从中赚取差价。
After six months on the job, Sperandeo had earned $50,000 in commissions. His boss, who earned an annual salary of $50,000, called him in for a talk. “Victor,” he said, “you’re doing such a good job, we decided to put you on a salary.” Somehow, the offer of a $20,000 salary and an ambiguous commitment to some sort of bonus in lieu of his existing compensation arrangement just didn’t sound like good news. Three weeks later Sperandeo switched jobs. Unfortunately, he found that his new firm played the same song only in a different key—when he received his monthly profit/loss statements, he discovered that his profits were being eaten away by enormous expense allocations.在工作了六个月之后，斯佩兰德奥通过佣金赚得了5万美元。他的老板年薪也是5万美元，于是把斯佩兰德奥叫去谈了谈。“维克托，”老板说，“你的表现非常出色，所以我们决定给你发工资。”然而，这个提议——即给予他2万美元的月薪，并承诺会以某种奖金来替代他现有的报酬方式——听起来却并不像是什么好消息。三周后，斯佩兰德奥换了一份工作。不幸的是，他发现新公司也在玩同样的把戏，只不过手段略有不同而已。当他收到每月的损益报表时，他发现自己的利润被巨额的开销给蚕食掉了。After about six months, Sperandeo finally decided that if he were going to get a fair deal, he would have to make it himself. After finding a partner to finance the operation, Sperandeo launched his own firm, Ragnar Options, in 1971. Sperandeo claims that Ragnar was the first option dealer to offer guaranteed quotes on options without charging exceptionally high premiums. If they couldn’t find an existing option contract in the market to meet a buyer’s request (which they could purchase and resell at a premium), they wrote the option themselves. (At the time, options were tailor-made to the customer’s specifications, as opposed to being traded as uniform instruments on an exchange.) As a result of this policy of offering reasonable firm quotes, according to Sperandeo, within six months Ragnar was the largest OTC option dealer in the world.大约六个月后，斯佩兰德奥终于意识到：如果他想得到公平的待遇，就必须自己动手去争取。在找到一位愿意为他的业务提供资金支持的合作伙伴后，斯佩兰德奥于1971年创立了自己的公司——拉格纳期权公司。他声称，拉格纳是第一家能够提供有保障的期权报价服务，同时又不会收取过高手续费的期权交易商。如果市场上没有现有的期权合约能够满足买方的需求，他们就会自行设计并发行相应的期权合约（在当时，期权合约是根据客户的特定要求量身定制的，并非像现在那样在交易所作为标准化金融工具进行交易）。由于采取了这种提供合理报价的政策，据斯佩兰德奥所说，六个月内拉格纳就已经成为了全球最大的场外期权交易商。
Throughout his entire career, Sperandeo has placed a greater emphasis on loss avoidance than on scoring large gains. He was largely successful at this objective, stringing together eighteen consecutive winning years before registering his first loss in 1990. Over this period, his average annual gain was 72 percent, with results ranging from a single loss of 35 percent in 1990 to five years of triple-digit gains.在整个职业生涯中，斯佩兰德奥始终更注重避免亏损，而非追求高额收益。他在这一目标上取得了显著成功——在连续18年获得盈利之后，才在1990年首次遭遇亏损。在这段时间里，他的年均收益率为72%，具体成绩也有所不同：1990年那一年他亏损了35%，而其他几年则连续实现了三位数的收益。Although Sperandeo never bothered to finish the credits for his nighttime college degree, over the years he has done an enormous amount of reading. In addition to books about the market, Sperandeo has read widely in the somewhat related fields of economics, psychology, and philosophy. Overall, he estimates that he has read approximately twenty-five hundred books on these subjects.虽然斯佩兰德奥从未花心思去完成那些与获得夜间大学学位相关的手续，但这些年来他确实阅读了大量的书籍。除了与市场相关的书籍外，他还广泛涉猎了经济学、心理学和哲学等领域的相关著作。据他估计，自己在这些领域总共阅读了大约两千五百本书。
After nearly two decades as an independent or quasi-independent trader, why did you finally decide to start a money management firm?在以独立投资者或半独立投资者的身份活跃了将近二十年之后，你最终为什么决定创办一家资金管理公司呢？ In 1987 I did enormously well catching the huge break in the stock market. My success in this market led to unsolicited offers to manage some large sums of money. I realized that if I had been managing money, as opposed to simply trading my own account, my profit potential would have been enormously greater.1987年，我抓住了股市中的重大机会，因此取得了巨大的成功。在股市中的这一成功让我收到了许多主动提出的邀请，希望我能够管理大笔资金。我意识到，如果我当时是在管理他人的资金，而不仅仅是操作自己的账户进行交易，那么我的盈利潜力将会大得多。
What did you know about options trading at the time?当时，你对期权交易了解多少呢？ Nothing, but I knew that was what I wanted to do. I tried to make an impression on the senior partner who interviewed me by telling him that I was a genius.没什么特别的，但我知道自己确实想做这件事。为了给面试我的那位高级合伙人留下好印象，我告诉他自己我是个天才。He said, “What do you mean?”他说：“你是什么意思？”I told him that I had a photographic memory—which, incidentally, I don’t.我告诉他我拥有过目不忘的能力——不过事实上，我并没有这种能力。He said, “Prove it.”他说：“证明给我看。”I told him that I had memorized all the stock symbols—which I had. I had taken a memory course years before. This fellow had been on Wall Street for thirty-five years and didn’t know all the symbols. He tested me, and I knew them all. He offered me the job.我告诉他，我已经把所有的股票代码都记住了——事实上，我确实记住了。几年前我参加过一门记忆训练课程，因此这些代码我全都记在了心里。这个在华尔街工作了三十五年的人竟然不知道所有的股票代码，他还测试了我，结果我发现我确实全部都记住了。于是他向我提供了这份工作。
Was there any correlation between intelligence and success at trading?智力与交易成功之间是否存在任何关联呢？ Absolutely, but not in the way you think. For example, one of the people I picked was a high school dropout, who I’m sure didn’t even know the alphabet. He was one of the five who made me a great deal of money.当然，但不是以你想象的方式。例如，我挑选的人中有一个是高中辍学生，我敢肯定他甚至都不认识字母表。然而，他却是那五个让我赚了大钱的人之一。 Why did you pick him?你为什么选了他？ He was my phone clerk on the American Stock Exchange, and he was very aggressive and alert. Also, he had been in Vietnam and had a hand grenade explode near him, leaving shrapnel in his pancreas. As a result of this experience, he was always afraid of everything. When it came to trading, he was more worried about losing than winning. He took losses very quickly.他在美国证券交易所担任电话接线员，工作态度非常积极、反应也极其敏捷。此外，他曾经在越南服役，当时有一颗手榴弹在他附近爆炸，弹片嵌入了他的胰腺。因此，这段经历让他对一切事物都充满了恐惧。在交易过程中，他更担心会遭受损失，而不是希望获得盈利；他也会很快接受自己所遭受的亏损。On the other extreme of the intelligence spectrum, one of the people I trained was a genius. He had a 188 IQ, and he was on “Jeopardy” once and answered every question correctly. That same person never made a dime in trading during five years.在智力谱系的另一个极端，我曾经培训过的一个人堪称天才。他的智商高达188，他曾参加过一次《危险边缘》节目，并且答对了所有问题。然而，在接下来的五年时间里，这个人通过交易却一分钱也没赚到。I discovered that you can’t train people how to trade by just imparting knowledge. The key to trading success is emotional discipline. Making money has nothing to do with intelligence. Think of all the bright people that choose careers on Wall Street. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.我发现，仅仅通过传授知识是无法教会人们如何进行交易的。交易成功的关键在于情绪控制能力。赚钱与智力毫无关系。想想那些选择在华尔街从事交易工作的人吧——如果智力真的是决定因素的话，那么应该会有更多的人通过交易来赚钱才对。
You almost seem to be implying that intelligence is an impediment to successful trading. How would you explain that?你似乎在暗示，智力反而会成为成功进行交易的障碍。你如何解释这一点呢？ Assume that you’re a brilliant student who graduates Harvard summa cum laude. You get a job with a top investment house, and within one year, they hand you a $5 million portfolio to manage. What would you believe about yourself? Most likely, you would assume that you’re very bright and do everything right. Now, assume you find yourself in a situation where the market is going against your position. What is your reaction likely to he? “I’m right.” Why? Because everything you’ve done in life is right. You’ll tend to place your IQ above the market action.假设你是一名才华横溢的学生，以最高荣誉从哈佛大学毕业。你进入了一家顶尖的投资机构工作，仅仅一年后，他们就交给你负责管理一个价值500万美元的投资组合。你会如何看待自己呢？很可能会认为自己非常聪明，所做的每一件事都是正确的。现在，再假设你遇到了这样的情况：市场走势与你的投资决策相悖。你的反应会是什么？“我是对的。”为什么呢？因为你在生活中所做的每一件事都是正确的，你自然会认为自己的智商高于市场的运行规律。To be a successful trader, you have to be able to admit mistakes. People who are very bright don’t make very many mistakes. In a sense, they generally are correct. In trading, however, the person who can easily admit to being wrong is the one who walks away a winner.要想成为一名成功的交易者，就必须能够承认自己的错误。那些非常聪明的人犯的错误通常很少；从某种意义上说，他们所做的判断往往都是正确的。然而在交易领域，那些能够坦然承认自己犯错的人，才真正能够取得成功。
Besides trading, there is probably no other profession where you have to admit when you’re wrong. Think about it. For example, consider a lawyer who, right before a big case, goes out with his girlfriend and stays up half the night. The next day, he’s drowsy and inadequately prepared. He ends up losing the case. Do you think he’s going to tell the client, “I’m sorry, I went out last night and stayed up too long. If I were sharper, I would have won the case. Here’s your money back.” It will never happen. He can always find some excuse. He would probably say something like, “I did the best I could, but the jury was biased.” He will never have to admit he was wrong. No one will ever know the truth except him. In fact, he’ll probably push the truth so far into his subconscious that he’ll never admit to himself that his own actions caused the loss of the case.除了交易行业之外，恐怕没有其他职业会要求人们必须承认自己的错误。仔细想想吧。例如，假设有一位律师，在一场重要的案件审理之前，和女朋友外出玩了一整晚，结果第二天他昏昏沉沉，准备也不充分，最终导致案件败诉。你认为他会告诉客户：“对不起，我昨晚出去玩得太晚，如果我头脑清醒一些，这个案子就能赢了，现在我把你们的钱退给你们吧？”这种事绝对不会发生。他总能找到各种借口，比如“我已经尽了最大努力，但陪审团存在偏见”等等。他永远不必承认自己犯了错。除了他之外，没有人会知道真相。事实上，他很可能会将这个真相深埋在自己的潜意识之中，以至于永远都不会承认自己的行为导致了案件的失败。In trading, you can’t hide your failures. Your equity provides a daily reflection of your performance. The trader who tries to blame his losses on external events will never learn from his mistakes. For a trader, rationalization is a guaranteed road to ultimate failure在交易中，你无法隐藏自己的失败。你的账户资金状况每天都在反映你的交易表现。那些试图将自己的亏损归咎于外部因素的交易者，永远无法从自己的错误中吸取教训。对交易者来说，为自己找借口无疑是一条通向彻底失败的必经之路。
On balance, did you lose money on this trainee trading program?总的来说，参加这个实习生交易培训计划后，你是不是亏损了？ No, because the five of the thirty-eight trainees who were successful made more money than all the others combined lost. The only unfortunate thing was that these five people made so much money that they quit. That was one outcome I didn’t consider at the onset.不，因为在那38名受训者中，成功的那5个人赚的钱，比其他所有失败者的损失总和还要多。唯一不幸的是，这5个人赚的钱太多，以至于他们最终选择了辞职。这是我在最初规划时没有预料到的一种结果。
Why do you think the majority of people you trained lost money?你认为，为什么你培训过的大多数人最终都会亏损呢？ They lacked what I call emotional discipline—the ability to keep their emotions removed from trading decisions. Dieting provides an apt analogy for trading. Most people have the necessary knowledge to lose weight—that is, they know that in order to lose weight you have to exercise and cut your intake of fats. However, despite this widespread knowledge, the vast majority of people who attempt to lose weight are unsuccessful. Why? Because they lack the emotional discipline.他们缺乏我所称之为“情绪自律”——也就是在做出交易决策时能够将自己的情绪排除在决策过程之外的能力。节食这一行为与交易行为有着极为相似的道理。大多数人其实都掌握着减肥所需的必要知识，也就是说，他们知道要想减肥就必须锻炼身体并减少脂肪的摄入量。然而，尽管这种知识已经普及开来，但绝大多数尝试减肥的人仍然无法成功。为什么呢？因为他们缺乏情绪自律。 If you were going to repeat this experiment again—which obviously you are not—do you think that you’d be able to pick a higher percentage of winning traders?如果你真的要再次重复这个实验的话——显然你并不会这么做——你认为自己能否选出更多能够获胜的交易者呢？ Yes, because this time around I would pick people on the basis of psychological traits.是的，因为这一次我会根据人们的心理特征来挑选人选。 Specifically, what traits would you look for?具体来说，你会关注哪些特征呢？ Essentially, I would look for people with the ability to admit mistakes and take losses quickly. Most people view losing as a hit against their self-esteem. As a result, they postpone losing. They think of all sorts of reasons for not taking losses. They select a mental stop point and then fail to execute it. They abandon their game plan.从根本上说，我会寻找那些能够坦然承认自己的错误并迅速接受失败的人。大多数人认为失败会损害他们的自尊心，因此他们会推迟面对失败，想出各种理由来逃避承担损失，设定一个心理上的“停止点”，但却无法真正做到这一点，最终也会放弃自己原本制定的计划。
What other mistakes do people make?人们还会犯哪些其他的错误呢？ They don’t approach trading as a business. I’ve always viewed trading as a business.他们并不把交易视为一项事业来对待。而我一直以来都认为交易本质上就是一项事业。
I know that you’re a self-taught student in economics, having read scores or possibly even hundreds of books on the subject. Has this study been a purely intellectual endeavor, or does it yield some practical benefits in terms of trading?我知道你是一个自学成才的经济学学者，你阅读过大量甚至可能是数百本与经济学相关的书籍。这种学习过程纯粹是出于学术兴趣，还是能在实际交易中带来一些实际好处呢？ There have been a number of incidents in which I believe my knowledge of economics and economic history helped me profit from the markets. A classic example occurred when François Mitterrand, a self-proclaimed socialist, won a surprise victory in the 1981 French presidential election. In his campaign, Mitterrand had promised to nationalize segments of industry and to introduce massive social welfare programs. I understood that the economic implications of Mitterrand’s programs would spell disaster for the French franc. I immediately sold the franc, which was then trading at approximately a four-to-one exchange rate to the dollar. I covered that position a mere three weeks later when the franc was trading at six to one to the dollar. In my view, that trade was about as close as you can get to a sure thing. Incidentally, the franc eventually sank to a ten-to-one rate against the dollar.发生过一些这样的情况：我相信，正是我对经济学及经济史的了解，帮助我从市场中获得了收益。一个典型的例子是，当自称为社会主义者的弗朗索瓦·密特朗在1981年的法国总统选举中出人意料地获胜时。在竞选期间，密特朗承诺将部分产业收归国有，并推出大规模的社会福利计划。我意识到，这些计划所带来的经济影响将对法国法郎造成灾难性后果，因此立即卖掉了当时以约4比1的汇率兑换美元的法郎。仅仅三周后，当法郎的汇率降至6比1时，我又重新买入了法郎。在我看来，那次交易几乎可以说是十拿九稳、毫无风险的。顺便提一下，最终法郎的汇率还是跌到了10比1的水平。
Any final words?还有什么最后要说的吗？ Being involved in this business requires tremendous dedication and desire. However, you shouldn’t make trading your whole life. You have to take time off. You need to spend time with loved ones. You need to balance your life.从事这项事业需要付出巨大的努力和坚定的决心。然而，你并不应该把交易作为自己一生的全部。你必须适时休息，需要花时间陪伴所爱的人，也需要平衡好自己的生活。When I did my exhaustive study on historical stock trends, my daughter, Jennifer, was in her preschool years. That’s a critical age for the child in terms of development and a wonderful age for parents to enjoy their children. Unfortunately, I was so involved with my project that when I came home from work, I would eat and immediately head for my study. When my daughter wandered into my office, I had no time to share with her. It was a mistake that I regret to this day.当我进行那次关于历史股票走势的深入研究时，我的女儿詹妮弗还处于学龄前阶段。对孩子们来说，这个阶段是成长发育的关键时期；对父母而言，这也是享受与孩子相处的美好时光。不幸的是，我当时完全沉浸在自己的研究项目中，每天下班回家后，我只是简单吃点东西，然后就立刻回到书房继续工作。每当我的女儿走进我的办公室时，我根本没有时间陪她聊天。直到今天，我仍然为这个错误感到懊悔。

Tom Basso MR. SERENITY To be frank, Tom Basso was not on my list of interview subjects for this book. Although his track record is solid, it is by no means striking. As a stock account manager, he has averaged 16 percent annually since 1980, approximately 5 percent above the S&P 500 return. Quite respectable, considering that the majority of managers underperform the index, but still not the stuff of legends. As a futures fund manager, Basso has averaged 20 percent annually since 1987 with only moderate volatility. Here, too, the results are significantly better than the industry average, but hardly extraordinary. And yet, in an important sense, Basso is perhaps the most successful trader I have interviewed. To paraphrase a recent commercial, how do you spell success? If your answer is M-O-S-T B-U-C-K-S, then Basso doesn’t make the grade. If, however, your answer is G-O-O-D B-U-C-K-S, G-R-E-A-T L-I-F-E, then Basso has few peers. When I first met Basso, I was immediately struck by his i

When I first met Basso, I was immediately struck by his incredible ease about trading. He has learned to accept losses in trading not only in an intellectual sense but on an emotional level as well. Moreover, his feelings of exuberance about trading (or, for that matter, about life) bubble right out of him. Basso has managed to be a profitable trader while apparently maintaining complete peace of mind and experiencing great joy. In this sense, I can’t think of a more worthy role model for a trader. I knew within minutes of meeting Basso that he was someone I wanted to include in this book. I also realized that my method of selecting interview subjects strictly on the basis of numbers was a somewhat myopic approach.当我第一次见到巴索时，他那种在交易中表现出的从容与自信立刻让我印象深刻。他不仅从理性层面，也从情感层面学会了如何接受交易中的损失。此外，他对交易——或者说对生活——所怀有的热情也完全溢于言表。巴索在实现盈利的同时，似乎始终保持着内心的平静，并且能够从中获得巨大的快乐。从这个角度来看，我认为没有比他更值得成为交易者的榜样了。在见到巴索的短短几分钟内，我就知道他一定是我想邀请来参与这本书写作的人选。同时，我也意识到，自己之前仅仅根据数据来选择采访对象的做法，其实是一种相当短视的做法。Basso started out as an engineer for Monsanto Company. He found that this job didn’t fully absorb his energies, and he began dabbling in the investment field. His first foray into the financial markets was a commodity (futures) account, which proved to be an immediate disaster. Although it took many years before Basso was able to trade futures profitably, he persisted until he finally succeeded.巴索最初是在孟山都公司担任工程师。他发现这份工作并不能完全激发他的热情，于是开始涉足投资领域。他首次进入金融市场是通过开设商品期货账户进行的，但结果却是一场灾难。虽然过了很多年，巴索才终于能够通过期货交易获得盈利，但他始终没有放弃，最终还是取得了成功。
When I was in high school I had an extreme fear of getting up in front of the class and talking. My knees would literally tremble. I eventually learned to deal with the situation by disassociating and observing myself. I was able to have this observer show up in times of stress. When I found myself shaking, my observer would say, “Why are you shaking, Tom? Just relax. You’re talking too fast. Slow down a little bit.”我在高中时，非常害怕在全班面前站起来讲话。我的膝盖会真的开始颤抖。后来，我学会了通过将自己置身于旁观者的角度来应对这种状况。在遇到压力时，我会让这个“旁观者”出现在自己的意识中。每当发现自己开始颤抖时，这个“旁观者”就会对我说：“汤姆，你为什么在颤抖？放松一点吧。你说话的速度太快了，放慢一点速度吧。”Eventually, I found that the observer was there all the time. If you’re watching yourself doing everything, you get pretty close to watching a movie. The observer is watching you play a role in this movie called Life.最终，我意识到：那个观察者其实一直都在那里。当你观察自己做每一件事的时候，你就仿佛在看一部电影一样。而那个观察者，正在看着你在这部名为“生命”的电影中扮演着自己的角色。 Is this advice that you give to people in general—try to be an observer of yourself?这是你给人们的普遍建议吗？也就是建议人们努力成为自己的观察者？ Absolutely. I couldn’t recommend it more. If instead of saying, “I’m going to do this trade,” you say, “I’m going to watch myself do this trade,” all of a sudden you find that the process is a lot easier.当然。我非常推荐这种方法。如果你不说“我要进行这笔交易”，而是说“我要观察自己完成这笔交易的过程”，你会突然发现，整个操作过程其实要容易得多。 How does having this observer help your trading?拥有这样的观察者能够帮助你进行交易吗？ The observer is able to say, “You’re getting greedy on this trade, watch out.” You might be straining and struggling because some of your indicators are bullish and some are bearish, and you don’t know what to do. The observer might say, “How about doing nothing? You don’t have to trade.”观察者可能会说：“你在这笔交易中变得太贪婪了，要小心。”由于你使用的某些指标显示看涨信号，而另一些指标则显示看跌信号，因此你可能会感到困惑，不知道该怎么做。观察者或许还会建议：“为什么不采取任何行动呢？你根本不需要进行这笔交易。”This concept is something I would recommend not only for trading but for life in general. There’s no reason why you have to struggle and strain and claw your way through life.我认为，这个理念不仅适用于交易，也适用于日常生活。你完全没有必要在生活中苦苦挣扎、费尽力气才能前进。

Linda Bradford Raschke READING THE MUSIC OF THE MARKETS Linda Bradford Raschke is so serious about trading that she traded right through the last day of her pregnancy. “You didn’t trade while you were in labor?” I asked her half-jokingly. “Well, no,” she said, “but then again, it was four A.M. and the markets weren’t open. I did, however, put on a trade about three hours after I gave birth to my daughter. I was short some currency contracts that were expiring that day. It seemed like such a good trade that I couldn’t bring myself to give up the opportunity of rolling the position over into the next contract month.” As I said, Linda Raschke is very serious about her trading. Raschke knew that she wanted to be involved in the markets from an early age. When she was unable to land a job as a stockbroker after graduating from college, she got into the routine of hanging out on the floor of the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange every morning before work. Although the driving motivation for her d

Raschke knew that she wanted to be involved in the markets from an early age. When she was unable to land a job as a stockbroker after graduating from college, she got into the routine of hanging out on the floor of the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange every morning before work. Although the driving motivation for her daily visits to the exchange floor was her fascination with the markets, this routine eventually led to an opportunity to become a trader. One of the exchange locals befriended Raschke and taught her the basics of options. Impressed by Raschke’s enthusiasm and quick ability to grasp market concepts, he provided her with a trading stake.拉施克从很小的时候就知道自己想要参与金融市场。大学毕业后，由于未能找到股票经纪人的工作，她便养成了每天上班前去太平洋海岸证券交易所交易大厅闲逛的习惯。虽然她每天去那里的真正动机是对金融市场的浓厚兴趣，但这种习惯最终为她提供了成为交易员的机会。交易所里的一位工作人员与拉施克成为了朋友，并教她期权交易的基础知识。他对拉施克的热情以及她快速掌握市场概念的能力印象深刻，于是给了她一笔交易资金。
Did you get a market-related job after finishing college?大学毕业后，你找到了一份与市场相关的工作吗？ After graduating college, I went up to San Francisco to try to find a job as a stockbroker. I must have applied to every brokerage firm in the city, and I was turned down by all of them. They didn’t take me seriously. To them, I was just a young kid who had graduated college. I was repeatedly told to come back in four or five years. I finally ended up taking a job as a financial analyst with Crown Zellerbach, a paper company.大学毕业后，我去了旧金山，试图找一份股票经纪人的工作。我几乎向这座城市里的每一家经纪公司都投了简历，但都被拒绝了。他们并没有把我当回事——在他们眼里，我只不过是一个刚毕业的年轻人罢了。他们反复告诉我，四五年后再来试试吧。最终，我在一家造纸公司——Crown Zellerbach找到了财务分析师的工作。As fate would have it, my office was only two blocks away from the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. Since I didn’t have to be at work until 8:30 and the exchange opened at 7:30, I started spending the first hour of my day at the exchange.命运的安排使得我的办公室距离太平洋海岸证券交易所只有两个街区的距离。由于我上班的时间是8:30，而交易所的开门时间是7:30，因此我开始每天把一天的第一个小时花在交易所里。
What did you do there?你在那里做了什么？ I just watched what was going on. After a while, people noticed I was there, and some of them went out of their way to explain things. One trader explained the pricing of options to me, and I thought, “Gee, I can do that.” It didn’t sound like such a big deal. The truth is that once you get down on the trading floor, you find that the traders come from all walks of life. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to be a trader. In fact, some of the best traders whom I knew down on the floor were surf bums. Formal education didn’t really seem to have much to do with a person’s skill as a trader.我只是站在那里观察着周围发生的一切。过了一会儿，人们注意到了我的存在，其中有些人还特意过来向我解释一些情况。有位交易员向我讲解了期权的价格机制，当时我想：“哇，原来我可以做这个啊。”这听起来似乎并不是什么难事。事实上，一旦你真正走进交易大厅，就会发现那些交易员来自各行各业——成为一名交易员并不一定需要具备高深的学术背景。事实上，我在交易大厅里认识的一些最优秀的交易员，其实都是冲浪爱好者。正规的教育似乎与一个人作为交易员的技能并无太大关系。 How did your transition from observer to participant come about?你是如何从观察者转变为参与者的呢？ The person who had explained the basics of the options market to me thought that I would make a good trader and offered to back me. At the time, I was applying to graduate schools to get an M.B.A. I thought to myself, “I can either go to business school to get my M.B.A., or I can trade on the floor of the stock exchange—hmm, which do I want to do?” It wasn’t a hard decision.那位向我讲解过期权市场基础知识的人认为我很有潜力成为一名出色的交易员，因此主动提出要支持我。当时，我正在申请研究生院，打算攻读MBA学位。我心想：“要么去商学院读MBA，要么在证券交易所的交易大厅从事交易工作……嗯，我到底应该选择哪一条路呢？”这个决定其实并不难。
On what basis was he willing to back you as a trader?他究竟是基于什么理由愿意支持你作为交易者的呢？ What has impressed me about other people whom I have ended up training or backing is their level of interest. If someone has a strong enough interest or desire, it usually overcomes other obstacles. I think he was impressed with my interest in the markets.那些后来由我负责培训或提供支持的人，最让我印象深刻的一点就是他们所表现出的那份热情与兴趣。如果一个人拥有足够的热情和渴望，那么这些因素通常能够帮助他们克服各种障碍。我认为，他之所以对我对市场的关注感到印象深刻，正是因为如此。
It almost sounds as if you were able to shrug it off.听起来你似乎能够对此毫不在意，甚至能够泰然处之。 I don’t want to make light of this experience, because it was intimidating being faced with a mountain of debt at the age of twenty-two. In fact, I still had $10,000 in debt left over from college student loans. Fortunately, I was able to find another backer, and everything worked out. Overcoming that experience gave me the confidence that I could overcome anything that might happen in the future.我并不想轻视这段经历，因为在22岁的时候面对堆积如山的债务，确实让人感到非常恐惧。事实上，我当时还欠着1万美元的大学贷款。幸运的是，我后来找到了另一位支持者，最终一切问题都得到了解决。这段经历让我明白了：只要我有决心，就能够克服未来可能遇到的任何困难。
What is your trading style?你的交易风格是怎样的？ My niche is short-term trading, which is how I make my bread and butter. The occasional long-term trades are frosting on the cake. I believe that only short-term price swings can be predicted with any precision. The accuracy of a prediction drops off dramatically, the more distant the forecast time. I’m a strong believer in chaos theory.我的专长是进行短期交易，这也是我谋生的主要方式。偶尔进行的长期交易只不过是锦上添花而已。我认为，只有短期价格波动才能被较为准确地预测出来；而预测的时间越长，预测的准确性就会大幅下降。我非常信奉混沌理论。[A basic concept of chaos theory is that for aperiodic systems—i.e., systems that never exactly repeat themselves and hence never find a steady state, such as weather or the markets—slight differences in variable values or measurements can be magnified to have huge effects over increasing periods of time. The technical name for this phenomenon—sensitive dependence on initial conditions—has become better known as the Butterfly Effect. As James Gleick described it in his excellent book, Chaos: Making a New Science, “In weather, for example, this translates into what is only half-jokingly known as the Butterfly Effect—the notion that a butterfly stirring the air today in Peking can transform storm systems next month in New York.”]混沌理论的一个基本概念是：对于那些非周期性的系统而言——也就是说，那些永远不会完全重复自身、因而也永远无法达到稳定状态的系统，比如天气系统或金融市场——变量数值或测量结果中的微小差异，会随着时间的推移而被放大，从而产生巨大的影响。这种现象在学术上被称为“对初始条件的敏感依赖性”，而人们更常将其称为“蝴蝶效应”。正如詹姆斯·格莱克在他那本非常优秀的著作《混沌：一门新科学的诞生》中所描述的那样：“以天气系统为例，这种现象就表现为所谓的‘蝴蝶效应’——也就是说，今天在北京有一只蝴蝶扇动翅膀，可能会在一个月后导致纽约出现风暴。”
I put a lot of time and effort into training him. I even gave him his own account, because I thought that the only way he could learn to trade was by doing it. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out.我投入了大量的时间和精力来训练他。我甚至为他专门注册了一个交易账户，因为我认为他只有通过实际操作才能学会交易技巧。可惜，这样的努力并没有取得预期的效果。 What went wrong?出了什么问题？ He didn’t seem to have any passion for trading. He couldn’t pull the trigger. I think he didn’t like the idea of taking risks. [Linda describes a typical conversation with her assistant:]他似乎对交易毫无热情，就是无法下定决心去进行交易。我认为，他根本不喜欢承担风险这种想法。[琳达描述了与她助手之间的一次典型对话：]
Why do you believe you have excelled as a trader?你为什么认为自己作为一名交易员已经取得了优异的成绩呢？ I believe my most important skill is an ability to perceive patterns in the market. I think this aptitude for pattern recognition is probably related to my heavy involvement with music. Between the ages of five and twenty-one, I practiced piano for several hours every single day. In college, I had a dual major of economics and musical composition. Musical scores are just symbols and patterns. Sitting there for hours every day, analyzing scores, probably helped that part of my brain related to pattern recognition. Also, practicing an instrument for several hours every day helps develop discipline and concentration—two skills that are very useful as a trader.我认为自己最重要的能力就是能够洞察市场中的各种规律与模式。这种识别模式的能力，很可能与我长期从事音乐活动有关。在5岁到21岁这段时间里，我每天都要练习钢琴数小时；上大学时，我同时学习了经济学和音乐作曲。乐谱其实只不过是一些符号和模式而已，而每天花数小时分析这些乐谱，无疑有助于锻炼我大脑中负责模式识别的那部分功能。此外，每天练习乐器还能帮助培养自律性和专注力——这两项能力对于从事交易工作来说无疑非常有用。
have sometimes felt that I had to work twice as hard to gain respect or to be taken seriously. But, quite honestly, that perception was probably based on my own beliefs rather than grounded in reality. In retrospect, I don’t think that being a woman has ever really hindered me. In fact, if anything, it sometimes seemed that people made an extra effort to be helpful to me, perhaps because there are so few women traders.有时候，我觉得自己必须付出双倍的努力才能获得他人的尊重，才能让别人认真对待我。但说实话，这种想法很可能只是基于我自己的主观判断，并非现实情况的真实反映。回顾过去，我认为身为女性从未真正成为我的障碍；事实上，有时候人们似乎还会格外努力地帮助我——也许是因为从事这一行业的女性实在太少了。Of course, there may be pockets in the industry in which women do encounter barriers—for example, the large New York institutional firms and banks. I have known women who felt that sexism interfered with their ability to land a job on a trading desk. But, again, I have never personally encountered such difficulties.当然，在某些行业领域，女性确实会遇到一些障碍——比如那些规模较大的纽约金融机构和银行。我认识一些女性，她们认为性别歧视阻碍了她们获得交易岗位的工作机会。不过，就我个人而言，我从未遇到过这样的困难。
What advice would you give novice traders?你会给新手交易者哪些建议呢？ Understand that learning the markets can take years. Immerse yourself in the world of trading and give up everything else. Get as close to other successful traders as you can. Consider working for one for free.请明白，学习如何把握市场规律可能需要数年的时间。你需要全身心地投入到交易世界中，放弃其他一切事务，并尽可能地接近那些成功的交易者。你甚至可以考虑免费为其中某位交易者工作，以此来学习他们的经验。Start by finding a niche and specializing. Pick one market or pattern and learn it inside out before expanding your focus. My favorite exercise for novice traders is pick one market only. Without looking at an intraday chart, jot down the price every five minutes from the opening to the close. Do this for an entire week. Be in tune to the patterns. Where are the support and resistance levels? How does price act when it hits these levels? What happens during the last half-hour? How long does each intraday price move last? You won’t believe how much you can learn from this exercise.首先，你需要找到一个特定的领域并专注于该领域进行学习。选择某个市场或某种交易模式，彻底掌握其运作规律后再逐步扩大研究范围。对于新手交易者来说，我最推荐的一种练习方法就是只关注一个市场。不要查看盘中的实时图表，而是从开盘开始，每隔五分钟记录一次价格变化，持续记录一整周。通过这种方式，你可以仔细观察各种价格走势模式：支撑位和阻力位分别在哪里？当价格触及这些位置时会发生什么？在每个交易日的最后半小时里，价格又会如何变动？每次价格波动会持续多久？你绝对会惊讶于自己能从这种练习中学到多少东西。

Mark Ritchie GOD IN THE PITS The subtitle of this chapter is taken from Mark Ritchie’s autobiographical book—a highly unusual blend of spiritual revelations, exotic experiences, and trading stories. It certainly does not mean to imply, however, that Ritchie believes he has deity-like trading prowess. On the contrary, the title refers to Ritchie’s convictions about the presence of God that he perceives in his life. It is hard to imagine an educational background further removed from trading—Mark Ritchie attended divinity school. (No, it doesn’t help in praying for positions.) While attending school, he barely scraped by, working a variety of part-time jobs such as correctional officer (night-time shift) and truck driver. In those days, he was so poor that when he drove a truck, he sometimes could not even afford to fill the tank. Mark initially got hooked on trading when he accompanied his bother, Joe, on a visit to the Chicago Board of Trade. Mark spent most of his trading career on th

How do you decide when a position is too large?你怎么判断某个头寸是否已经过大了呢？ I have a rule that whenever I’m still thinking about my position when I lay my head on my pillow at night, I begin liquidation the next morning. I’m hesitant to say this because it could be misconstrued. You know that I’m a praying person. If I find myself praying about a position at any time, I liquidate it immediately. That’s a sure sign of disaster. God is not a market manipulator. I knew a trader once who thought he was. He went broke—the trader, I mean.我有一条原则：每当我晚上躺下睡觉时还在思考自己的持仓情况，第二天早上我就会立即平仓。我有些犹豫是否该说出来，因为这可能会被误解。你们都知道我是一个喜欢祈祷的人；如果我发现自己在为某笔持仓而祈祷，那我一定会立刻平仓——因为那绝对是灾难的前兆。上帝并不是市场操纵者。我曾经认识一个自以为能够操纵市场的交易员，结果他最终破产了。
’ve always lost money faster than I’ve made it. One particularly striking instance concerned the roaring gold market during the period from 1979 to early 1980. Gold was sitting at around $400 when Iran took the hostages. I thought that the heightened tensions aroused by this situation would push gold prices much higher. But the market responded sluggishly, so I hesitated. The market eventually did go higher; it went to almost $500 over the next month. This was a classic example of not doing what you know should be done.我赚的钱总是比亏掉的钱快得多。有一个特别典型的例子：1979年到1980年初，黄金市场正处于繁荣期。当时黄金的价格约为400美元，而就在这个时候，伊朗劫持了人质。我认为这种紧张局势必然会导致黄金价格进一步上涨，但我犹豫了，因为市场的反应并不明显。最终，黄金价格确实上涨了，在接下来的一个月里几乎涨到了500美元。这个例子充分说明了：有时候，人们会因为犹豫不决而错过应该采取的行动。 In other words, you failed to act decisively, a trait you cited earlier as one of the key ingredients to being a successful trader.换句话说，你没有采取果断的行动，而你之前曾将这种品质视为成为一名成功交易者的关键要素之一。
Exactly. I eventually ended up buying gold at just under $500 an ounce. And as you might guess, it went down the limit the day I bought it. Locked limit-down, in fact.没错。最终我以每盎司略低于500美元的价格买进了黄金。正如你可能猜到的那样，我在购买黄金的那一天，黄金价格就跌到了跌停价；事实上，价格一直被牢牢地压制在跌停价水平上。

Blair Hull GETTING THE EDGE Blair Hull came to trading by way of the blackjack tables. This is not as strange as it may sound, since there are actually very strong parallels between the two activities. The point is not that success in trading is akin to luck in gambling, but rather that consistent winning in both is a matter of strategy and discipline, not luck. Luck plays a role only over the short term, where its potential adverse impact must be neutralized by money management controls. After the casinos caught on to Hull’s blackjack team, he sought another avenue for applying probability theory to making money. He found the same general principles could be employed to profit from the mispricings that occurred in the option markets. Hull started with $25,000 in late 1976 and by the start of 1979 had multiplied his stake twentyfold. He continued to score consistent profits in the subsequent years, averaging roughly 100 percent per year (excluding those years in which he took sabbatica

In 1985, he launched Hull Trading Company to allow for a more widespread application of his trading strategies. The company, which began with a skeleton staff of five, expanded rapidly, reaching nearly one hundred employees by mid-1991. If the growth in personnel can be described as arithmetic, the expansion of computers was geometric. HTC has an entire floor in its office building devoted to its computer equipment. Another option trader with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) who maintains an office in the same building quipped, “The building had to put in another bank of air conditioners on the roof because Hull’s computers were sucking up all the cool air.”1985年，他创立了Hull Trading Company，目的是让自己的交易策略得到更广泛的应用。这家公司最初只拥有五名员工，但发展速度非常快，到1991年中期，员工人数已经接近一百人。如果将员工人数的增长称为“算术级数增长”，那么计算机设备数量的增长则完全可以称为“几何级数增长”。Hull Trading Company的办公大楼里专门设有一个楼层用于存放所有的计算机设备。在同一栋大楼里设有办公室的芝加哥期权交易所的另一位期权交易员开玩笑说：“由于Hull公司的计算机吸收了所有冷空气，大楼不得不在屋顶上再安装几台空调。”
Hull’s company employs complex strategies, trading a broad range of interrelated option markets against each other in order to profit from temporary mispricings, while simultaneously keeping the firm’s net risk exposure to minimal levels. HTC is a market maker on a wide variety of exchanges, including the CBOE, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the American Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange, and various foreign exchanges. They account for over 10 percent of the total trading volume in a number of options in which they make markets.赫尔的公司采用了复杂的交易策略：通过同时交易多种相互关联的期权市场，利用市场中的暂时性价格失衡来获取利润，同时将公司的净风险控制在最低水平。HTC在包括CBOE、芝加哥商业交易所、美国证券交易所、纽约证券交易所以及多家海外交易所在内的众多交易平台上担任做市商。在他们提供做市服务的多种期权品种中，他们的交易量占这些品种总交易量的10%以上。All the positions taken by the company’s traders, who now number twenty-five, are constantly monitored in real time. Strategies are continuously revised to take into account changes in both market prices and positions held by the firm, with a real-time lag of only two seconds. Now you get the idea why Hull needs all those computers.该公司目前共有25名交易员，他们所持有的所有头寸都处于实时监控之下。交易策略会不断根据市场价格的变化以及公司所持有的头寸状况进行调整，这种调整的响应时间仅为两秒。现在你应该明白为什么Hull需要那么多计算机了吧。
My image of a blackjack table is where you sit down and are continually dealt hands. From a practical standpoint, how do you bet so selectively without it appearing awkward?在我心目中，二十一点游戏桌就是这样一个地方：人们坐下来后，会不断收到新的牌局。从实际操作的角度来看，要如何有选择地下注，同时又不会显得笨拙或不合时宜呢？ My strategy was to play only the hands that had an advantage. I stood back and did what was called back-counting. You can get away with that if you’re betting small amounts of money.我的策略是只去参与那些对自己有优势的赌局。我会保持一定的距离，然后采用所谓的“倒推法”来制定投注策略。如果你投注的金额较小，这种策略是可行的。
The way you express it, blackjack and trading are very similar.你的说法很有道理，二十一点游戏与交易其实非常相似。 That’s right. All you need is a mathematical advantage and the money management controls to assure that you stay in the game. Everything else takes care of itself.没错。你所需要的只是具备数学上的优势，以及合理的资金管理措施，这样才能确保自己能够继续参与这场“游戏”。其他的一切都会自行解决。 What happened after the team was uncovered?在那个团队被揭露之后，发生了什么？ For a while, I used the same principles to organize smaller teams. I kept a low profile by being a counter instead of the Big Player and playing in other locations, like Atlantic City. When I got tired of traveling so much, I tried to find other ways of applying probability theory. For a while, I tried poker, but I found that, although I had all the mathematics down pat, I didn’t have the appropriate skills. Every time I had the hand and bet large, everybody folded, and every time I bluffed, everybody stayed in.有段时间，我运用同样的原则来管理那些规模较小的团队。我选择低调行事，不扮演主导者的角色，而是选择在像大西洋城这样的地方进行活动。当我觉得频繁出差越来越麻烦时，我就开始尝试其他运用概率论的方法。有段时间我尝试过玩扑克，但我发现，尽管我对相关的数学原理了如指掌，却缺乏必要的技巧——每次当我手握有利牌局并下大注时，其他人都会选择退出；而每当我虚张声势时，其他人反而会继续留在游戏中。
Now correct me if I’m wrong. In blackjack, the rules are absolutely dictated. The dealer has to draw another card or he has to stick, depending on his card count, whereas in poker, people have more choice, and reading your opponent becomes a factor. Therefore, even if you have the edge mathematically, if people can read your emotions correctly or you can’t read theirs, you lose the edge.如果我错了，请纠正我。在二十一点游戏中，规则是绝对固定的：发牌员根据自己手中的牌数，必须再抽一张牌，或者选择不再抽牌。而在扑克游戏中，玩家有更多的选择余地，理解对手的心理状态也变得非常重要。因此，即使从数学角度来看你处于优势地位，但如果对手能够准确揣测出你的情绪，或者你无法理解他们的意图，那么这种优势就会消失。 Right, you lose the edge in a major way. Bluffing is an essential element of the game. There’s a mathematician who has written some very good books on poker strategy, but he’s never been able to make any money playing poker.没错，这样一来，你就彻底失去了优势。虚张声势其实是这个游戏的重要组成部分。有一位数学家写过一些关于扑克策略的非常不错的书籍，但他自己玩扑克却从来没赚到过钱。
Do you believe that some of the successful floor traders are successful because they’re good at reading people?你认为，那些成功的场内交易员之所以能够取得成功，是因为他们擅长揣摩他人的心理吗？ Absolutely. To some extent, you can sense when another market participant is in trouble. In other words, he’s offering at a quarter and you can just read that he needs to get out. So even if you want to buy at a quarter, you’ll wait, because you know he’s eventually going to reduce his offer to an eighth. This approach was never an important element in my own trading, however. Most of the money I’ve made has been the result of being on the right side of the theoretical value.当然。在某种程度上，你能够察觉到其他市场参与者是否遇到了麻烦。换句话说，当有人以四分之一的价格出售某样资产时，你就能看出他其实急需脱手。因此，即使你也想以四分之一的价格买入，你也会选择等待，因为你知道他最终会把报价降到八分之一的水平。不过，这种交易策略在我自己的交易实践中从未起到过重要作用。我所赚到的大部分钱，其实都是因为我判断对了那些资产的理论价值所在，从而在交易中占据了有利位置。

Jeff Yass THE MATHEMATICS OF STRATEGY Jeff Yass started as an option trader on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange in 1981. He was so enthralled by the opportunities in option trading that he enticed a number of his college friends to try trading careers. During the early 1980s, he trained six of these friends as traders. In 1987, Yass and his friends joined to form Susquehanna Investment Group. The firm has grown rapidly and now employs 175 people, including 90 traders. Today, Susquehanna is one of the largest option trading firms in the world and one of the largest entities in program trading. Yass seeks out nuances of market inefficiencies through complex refinements of standard option pricing models. However, the essence of Yass’s approach is not necessarily having a better model but rather placing greater emphasis on applying mathematical game theory principals to maximize winnings. To Yass, the market is like a giant poker game, and you have to pay very close attention t

Jeff Yass started as an option trader on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange in 1981. He was so enthralled by the opportunities in option trading that he enticed a number of his college friends to try trading careers. During the early 1980s, he trained six of these friends as traders. In 1987, Yass and his friends joined to form Susquehanna Investment Group. The firm has grown rapidly and now employs 175 people, including 90 traders. Today, Susquehanna is one of the largest option trading firms in the world and one of the largest entities in program trading.杰夫·亚斯于1981年在费城证券交易所开始从事期权交易工作。他对期权交易所带来的机会充满了兴趣，因此还说服了几位大学好友也尝试从事这一行业。20世纪80年代初，他培训了其中六位朋友，使他们掌握了交易技巧。1987年，亚斯和他的朋友们共同创立了Susquehanna投资集团。这家公司发展迅速，如今已拥有175名员工，其中90人是交易员。如今，Susquehanna已成为全球最大的期权交易机构之一，同时也是程序化交易领域的重要参与者。Yass seeks out nuances of market inefficiencies through complex refinements of standard option pricing models. However, the essence of Yass’s approach is not necessarily having a better model but rather placing greater emphasis on applying mathematical game theory principals to maximize winnings. To Yass, the market is like a giant poker game, and you have to pay very close attention to the skill level of your opponents. As Yass explains it in one of his poker analogies, “If you’re the sixth best poker player in the world and you play with the five best players, you’re going to lose. On the other hand, if your skills are only average, but you play against weak opponents, you’re going to win.” Yass will factor in his perception of the skill and knowledge of the person on the other side of a trade and adjust his strategy accordingly. He is willing to subjugate or revise his own market views based on the actions of those he considers better-informed traders.Yass通过対标准期权定价模型进行复杂的改进，来揭示市场中存在的各种非效率现象。然而，Yass这种方法的本质并不一定在于拥有更精确的模型，而更在于强调运用数学博弈论的原理来最大化收益。在Yass看来，市场就像一场巨大的扑克游戏，你必须密切关注对手的技巧水平。正如他在一次类比中所说：“如果你是世界上第六优秀的扑克玩家，却要与前五名选手同场竞技，那你肯定会输。”另一方面，如果你的技术水平仅处于平均水平，但对手都比较弱，那么你仍然有可能获胜。Yass会根据自己对交易对方的技术水平与知识储备的判断来调整自己的策略。他愿意根据那些他认为信息更丰富的交易者的行为，调整或修正自己原有的市场观点。
Do you still love TV dinners?你仍然喜欢吃电视晚餐吗？ Yes, and I also love all airplane food. I agree with Joan Rivers, who says she’s suspicious of anyone who claims they don’t like airplane food.是的，而且我也非常喜欢所有飞机上的食物。我同意琼·里弗斯的说法——她认为，任何声称自己不喜欢飞机食品的人都是不可信的。
When I was about thirteen, I bought Eastern Airlines. I flew to Florida at the time, and I thought it was a good airline. I also bought a realty company that eventually went bankrupt. I always lost. I remember my father saying to me, “The stock was around a long time before you bought it. Just because you bought it now doesn’t mean that it suddenly has to go up.”我大约十三岁的时候买了一些东方航空的股票。当时我乘东方航空的飞机去了佛罗里达州，因此我觉得这是一家不错的航空公司。我还买了一家房地产公司，但那家公司最终还是破产了。我总是亏钱。我记得父亲对我说：“你在购买这些股票之前，它们的价格已经稳定了很长时间。仅仅因为你现在买了它们，并不意味着它们的价格会立刻上涨。”In high school, I discovered options. I would check the option closing prices and find what I thought were huge mispricings. For example, one time Alcoa closed at $49 and the 45 call was trading only $2 1/2 above the 50 call. By buying the 45 call and selling the 50 call, I would lose $2 1/2 if the stock went down $4 or more, but I would win $2 1/2 if the stock went up $1 or more. It seemed like a great bet. I convinced my father to do the trade for me. The stock went up, and the trade worked out.在高中时，我接触到了期权交易。我会查看各种期权的收盘价格，然后寻找那些我认为存在严重定价偏差的期权。例如，有一次，铝业公司的股票收盘价为49美元，而价格为45美元的看涨期权，其交易价格仅比价格为50美元的看涨期权高出2.5美元。如果股价下跌4美元或更多，我买入45美元的看涨期权并卖出50美元的看涨期权，就会亏损2.5美元；但如果股价上涨1美元或更多，我就会获利2.5美元。这似乎是一个非常划算的交易机会。于是我说服父亲帮我进行这笔交易。结果，股价果然上涨了，我的交易也取得了成功。 Did you do any other option trades in high school after that?在高中之后，你还做过其他类型的期权交易吗？ No, I discovered that the closing option price printed in the newspaper was really just the last sale, which could be very stale. For example, an option might have finished the day 11 bid/12 offered, but if the last sale was at 13, that’s the price that would be printed in the paper. Once I discovered that these quotes were not real, I realized that most of the trading opportunities that I found were really nonexistent.不，我发现报纸上刊登的期权交易价格其实只是最后的成交价，而这些价格往往已经过时了。例如，某个期权的当日成交价可能是11元买入价/12元卖出价，但如果最后的成交价是13元，那么报纸上刊登的就会是这个价格。一旦我发现这些报价并不真实，我就意识到自己找到的那些“交易机会”其实根本并不存在。
My plan was to take a year off and travel across the country. I did, however, end up going on one interview with an investment house, which I won’t name. I was interviewed by the head of the options department. I think I might have insulted him, and I didn’t get the job.我的原本计划是休息一年，然后在全国各地旅行。不过，我还是去参加了一家投资公司的面试，不过我不会透露这家公司的名称。面试我的是该公司的期权业务部门负责人。我觉得自己可能在面试中得罪了他，因此最终没有得到那份工作。 Since you’re not naming the firm, why don’t you be more specific.既然你没有提到那家公司的名称，为什么不具体说明一下呢？ Well, our conversation went something along the following lines: He said, “So, you think you can make money trading options.” I then told him about what I thought was important in making money in the options market. He asked me, “Do you know this year’s high and low for IBM?”我们的对话大致是这样的：他说：“那么，你认为通过交易期权可以赚钱吗？”于是我向他介绍了在我看来在期权市场中赚钱所需要考虑的重要因素。他接着问我：“你知道IBM股票今年的高点和低点是多少吗？”I answered, “I think the low was 260 and the high was 320, but it’s absolutely irrelevant. If you’re wasting your time thinking about that, you’re on the wrong track completely.”我回答说：“我认为最低数值是260，最高数值是320，但这些数字其实根本无关紧要。如果你把时间浪费在思考这些事情上，那你就完全走错方向了。”He said, “Well, I know what it is; I think it is very important.”他说：“嗯，我知道那是什么；我认为它非常重要。”I replied, “Great! Just hire me and I’ll show you why it’s immaterial.”我回答说：“太好了！只要雇用我，我就会向您证明为什么这根本无关紧要。”In our subsequent conversation he indicated that he didn’t know the definition of beta [a technical term used to describe a stock’s volatility relative to the overall market]. He said, “I don’t bother myself with that kind of stuff.”在之后的谈话中，他表示自己并不了解“贝塔系数”这个术语的定义——这个专业术语是用来描述某只股票的波动性与其整体市场波动性之间的关系。他说：“我根本不会去研究这类东西。”I said, “Terrific! Just hire me, and I’ll explain it to you and show you how to use it.” Amazingly, I didn’t get the job. [He laughs heartily at the recollection.]我说：“太好了！只要雇用我，我就会向您解释清楚，并教您如何使用它。”然而，令人惊讶的是，我并没有得到那份工作。[他回忆起这件事时，开心地笑了起来。]
When I first started trading options in 1981 all you needed to make money was the standard Black-Scholes model and common sense. In the early I 980s, the basic strategy was to try to buy an option trading at a relatively low implied volatility and sell a related option at a higher volatility. For example, if a large buy order for a particular strike call pushed its implied volatility to 28 percent, while another call in the same stock was trading at 25 percent, you would sell the higher-volatility call and offset the position by buying the lower-volatility call.1981年我刚开始从事期权交易时，要想赚钱，只需要使用标准的布莱克-舒尔斯模型以及基本的常识就可以了。在20世纪80年代初，人们通常会采用这样的交易策略：试图购买那些隐含波动率相对较低的期权，然后卖出那些隐含波动率较高的相关期权。例如，如果有人大量买入某只股票的看涨期权，导致其隐含波动率上升至28%，而同一只股票的另一只看涨期权的隐含波动率仅为25%，那么你就可以卖出那只隐含波动率较高的看涨期权，同时买入那只隐含波动率较低的看涨期权，以此来平衡自己的持仓。 I assume these types of discrepancies existed because the market was fairly inefficient at the time.我认为，之所以会出现这类差异，是因为当时的市场效率相当低下。
Did you reach the conclusion about the bias in favor of larger downmoves based on a study of historical markets?你是通过研究历史市场数据，得出了这种倾向于出现更大幅度下跌的结论吗？ No, nothing that elaborate. Just by watching markets, I noticed that prices tend to come down much harder and faster than they go up.不，并不需要那么复杂的方法。我只是通过观察市场走势，发现价格下跌的速度通常比上涨的速度要快得多。 Does this directional bias apply only to stock index options? Or does it also apply to individual stock options?这种方向性偏差是否仅适用于股票指数期权，还是也适用于个股期权呢？ The options on most major stocks are priced that way [i.e., puts are more expensive than calls], because downside surprises tend to be much greater than the upside surprises. However, if a stock is the subject of a takeover rumor, the out-of-the-money calls will be priced higher than the out-of-the-money puts.大多数主要股票的期权都是按照这种方式定价的——也就是说，看跌期权的价格通常高于看涨期权的价格，因为股价下跌带来的负面影响往往要比股价上涨带来的积极影响严重得多。然而，如果某只股票出现了被收购的传闻，那么那些处于虚值状态的看涨期权的价格反而会高于处于虚值状态的看跌期权的价格。

PART VII

“We has met the enemy, and it is us.”“我们遇到了敌人，而那个敌人其实就是我们自己。”The famous quote from Walt Kelly’s cartoon strip, “Pogo,” would provide as fitting a one-line summation of the art of trading as any. Time and time again, those whom I interviewed for this book and its predecessor stressed the absolutely critical role of psychological elements in trading success. When asked to explain what was important to success, the Market Wizards never talked about indicators or techniques, but rather about such things as discipline, emotional control, patience, and mental attitude toward losing. The message is clear: The key to winning in the markets is internal, not external.沃尔特·凯利创作的漫画《波戈》中的一句著名台词，堪称对交易艺术最恰当的概括。在我为这本书及其前作进行采访的过程中，那些被采访的对象一再强调，心理因素在交易成功中起着至关重要的作用。当被问及什么才是决定交易成功的关键因素时，那些“市场奇才”们从未提到过任何指标或技术手段，而是谈到了自律性、情绪控制能力、耐心，以及面对亏损时应持有的心态。这个道理非常明确：在市场中取得成功的关键在于内在因素，而非外在条件。

Charles Faulkner THE MIND OF AN ACHIEVER Charles Faulkner abandoned graduate school (he was studying psycholinguistics at Northwestern University) after becoming enamored with two early books written by Richard Bandler and John Grinder, the cofounders of Neuro-Linguistic Programming (more on NLP in the interview). Starting in 1981, Faulkner studied extensively with Grinder and then with Bandler and other key NLP codevelopers, becoming a certified NLP trainer in 1987. Faulkner’s focus has been on modeling human excellence, with projects that have included accelerated learning, physician decision making, and futures trading. Faulkner is also a consultant, NLP seminar leader, and program designer and author of several audio tape programs applying the techniques of NLP. I met Charles Faulkner when he approached me after a talk I had given at a futures industry symposium. During my speech, I had made several references to this volume, which at the time was about half-completed. Faulkner exp

One critical element is beliefs. In his book Peak Performers, Charles Garfield reported that the key element these individuals share is a total belief in the likelihood of their own success. Contrast this with Dr. Michael Lerner’s research, published in his book Surplus Powerlessness, in which he found that most people feel that they have very little power over their lives. He based his conclusions on thousands of interviews conducted with people from a wide cross section of occupations. This general contrast between peak performers and the majority of the population serves equally well in explaining an essential difference between the outstanding traders and all other market participants. The supertraders have an absolute confidence in their ability to win—a confidence confirmed by competence in the markets. Contrast this with most traders who lack confidence in their system or approach and the typical tendency of many traders to blame others (their broker, floor traders, and so on) for their results.其中一个关键因素就是信念。查尔斯·加菲尔德在《顶尖表现者》一书中指出，这些人的共同特点就是他们对自身取得成功的可能性抱有坚定的信念。这与迈克尔·勒纳博士在《剩余的无力感》一书中的研究结果形成了鲜明对比——勒纳发现，大多数人认为自己对自己的生活几乎没有任何控制力。他的这一结论是基于对来自各行各业的大量人群进行的数千次访谈得出的。这种顶尖表现者与大多数普通人之间的根本差异，同样可以用来解释那些杰出的交易者与其他所有市场参与者之间的本质区别。这些超级交易者对自己获胜的能力抱有绝对的信心，而他们的这种信心也得到了他们在市场中的实际表现所证实。与他们相比，大多数交易者都对自己的交易系统或交易方法缺乏信心；而且，许多交易者还常常会将自己的交易结果归咎于他人（比如他们的经纪人、场内交易员等等）。
Beyond confidence in their own success, what are some of the other characteristics of successful traders?除了对自己能够取得成功充满信心之外，成功的交易者还具备哪些其他特点呢？ Another important element is that they have a perceptual filter that they know well and that they use. By perceptual filter I mean a methodology, an approach, or a system to understanding market behavior. For example, Elliott Wave analysis and classical chart analysis are types of perceptual filters. In our research, we found that the type of perceptual filter doesn’t really make much of a difference. It could be classical chart analysis, Gann, Elliott Waves, or Market Profile—all these methods appear to work, provided the person knows the perceptual filter thoroughly and follows it.另一个重要的因素是：这些人拥有自己非常熟悉并会加以运用的某种“感知过滤器”。所谓“感知过滤器”，其实是指一种理解市场行为的方法论、途径或体系。例如，艾略特波浪理论分析和传统的图表分析方法都属于这类“感知过滤器”。在我们的研究中，我们发现，所使用的“感知过滤器”类型其实并不会对分析结果产生太大影响。无论是传统的图表分析方法、甘恩理论、艾略特波浪理论，还是市场轮廓分析方法，只要使用者对这些方法有深入的了解并严格遵循其分析原则，这些方法似乎都能产生有效的分析结果。

Robert Krausz THE ROLE OF THE SUBCONSCIOUS I first learned of Robert Krausz through a letter in Club 3000—a publication that consists largely of letters written by subscribers who share an interest in trading. The trader who wrote the letter described how a set of subliminal tapes he had purchased from Robert Krausz, a member of the British Hypnotist Examiners Council, had improved his trading immensely. I was intrigued. There is almost a Dickensian quality to Robert Krausz’s life story. His early childhood years were spent in a ghetto in Hungary during World War II. At the age of eight, he and a friend escaped from a forced march to a death camp, bolting for the woods in opposite directions during a moment in which the guards were distracted. Having no place else to go, he made his way back to the ghetto, where he stayed until the end of the war. Krausz spent the years after the war in a succession of orphanages, finally ending up in an orphanage in South Africa. There he met a diamon

In other words, you were meeting margin calls along the way.换句话说，你在这一过程中不断面临追加保证金的要求。 Exactly. I kept putting more and more money into the account. I kept on thinking, “The market is going to turn. The market is going to turn.” Of course, it never turned.没错。我不断地往这个账户里存钱，心里一直想着：“市场肯定会好转的，肯定会好转的。”然而，市场却始终没有好转。 When did you finally give up the ship?你最终是在什么时候放弃那艘船的？ I had a specific cutoff point. I was a 50 percent shareholder in a garment business, and I wanted to be absolutely certain that my losses would not endanger the business. When I reached my maximum loss point, I got out. The experience proved to be a substantial financial loss, but even more important, it was a tremendous infliction of pain to my ego. I was a reasonably successful businessman who up to that point had never failed in any venture. I couldn’t believe how stupid I had been.我设定了一个明确的止损点。我在一家服装企业中持有50%的股份，因此我必须确保自己的损失不会危及这家企业的正常运营。一旦我的损失达到了那个预设的限度，我就会立即退出投资。这次经历确实让我遭受了巨大的经济损失，但更重要的是，它对我的自尊心造成了极大的打击。在此之前，我一直是一位相当成功的商人，从未在任何商业投资中失败过。我实在无法相信自己当时竟然会犯如此愚蠢的错误。
While you were trading, were you making your own decisions, or was your broker giving you advice?在您进行交易的时候，是您自己做出决策，还是您的经纪人给您提供了建议？ Oh, my broker was very “helpful” in advising me on the trades. I later found out that he knew less than I did. But I’ve always taken responsibility for my actions, and this experience was no exception.哦，我的经纪人在指导我进行交易时表现得非常“热心”……后来我发现，他其实懂得的东西还不如我多。但我一向都会为自己的行为负责，这次也不例外。 What ultimately happened to your friend who enticed you to trade the gold market?最终，那个劝你参与黄金市场交易的朋友发生了什么？ He never gave up the belief. The man eventually went totally broke.他从未放弃这一信念。最终，这个人彻底破产了。
Do you ever have people come to you saying that they want to be traders, but when you put them in a hypnotic state you find that they really don’t want to be traders after all?你是否遇到过这样的事情：有人来找你，表示他们想成为一名交易员，但当你让他们进入催眠状态后，却发现他们其实并不真的想从事交易员这份工作？ Absolutely. This situation arises with alarming regularity. Some people try to punish themselves through the market. Of course, this all occurs on a subconscious level. There are people who feel they have to make retribution for some real or imagined wrong they have done to another person. For some people, the channel is suicide; for some people, it’s doing their job poorly on purpose; and for some people, it’s losing money in the markets—even though they may know better.当然。这种情况以令人担忧的频率不断发生。有些人试图通过市场来惩罚自己，当然，这一切都是在潜意识层面上发生的。有些人觉得自己必须为曾经对他人犯下的真实或想象中的过错进行补偿。对某些人来说，这种补偿方式就是自杀；对另一些人来说，就是故意把工作做得很糟糕；而对于还有一些人来说，就是在市场上亏损——尽管他们其实更清楚应该怎么做才对。Quite simply, there are some people who just shouldn’t be trading. By putting them under hypnosis you find that these people are not really comfortable trading; it’s not their calling. When I find people who fall into this category, I bring them to and inform them as to what transpired during hypnosis. I tell them, “Here’s your money; I can’t help you. Do yourself and your family a great favor and forget trading.”简单来说，有些人根本就不适合从事交易活动。通过催眠测试，你会发现这些人其实并不适合进行交易；交易并不是他们的天职。每当遇到属于这类的人，我都会把他们找来，告诉他们在接受催眠测试期间发生了什么。我会对他们说：“这些钱还给你们吧，我实在帮不了你们。为了你自己和你的家人着想，还是放弃交易吧。”
One person hated his wife but didn’t have the courage to divorce her. Ironically, it was his wife who had sent him to me. He was a successful professional man who had been trading for two years and losing money steadily. Under hypnosis, it came out that the only way he saw out of his dilemma was to make himself church-mouse poor so that his wife would walk out on him. The strategy was to make his financial losses look legitimate. He couldn’t make himself look bad through his own profession, because he was so good at it. So every month in which he made X thousand dollars in his profession, he would give back X thousand plus in the commodity markets.有一个人憎恨自己的妻子，但却没有勇气与她离婚。具有讽刺意味的是，正是他的妻子将他介绍给了我。他原本是一位事业有成的专业人士，从事交易工作已有两年，但亏损却一直在持续。在催眠状态下，他终于吐露了自己摆脱这种困境的唯一办法：让自己变得一贫如洗，这样他的妻子就会离开他。他的计划是让自己的财务亏损看起来“合情合理”——因为他自己的职业领域非常出色，他无法通过自己的工作让自己显得很糟糕。所以，每当他通过自己的工作赚到一万美元时，他就会在商品市场上损失一万美元甚至更多的钱。 Did he admit all of this under hypnosis? Or was this your analytical interpretation?他是是在催眠状态下承认了这一切的？还是说这只是你的分析解读而已？ I asked him straight out under hypnosis, “Are you getting back at your wife? Do you feel that if you lose enough money in the markets, she’ll walk out on you?”在催眠状态下，我直接问他：“你是在报复你的妻子吗？你是否认为，如果你在市场上损失了足够的钱，她就会离开你？”He exclaimed. “That’s the idea!”他惊呼道：“正是这个主意！” That was his subconscious talking?那是他的潜意识在发挥作用吗？ Absolutely. In his conscious mind this man would never admit to this motivation.当然。在这个男人的意识层面里，他永远也不会承认自己有这样的动机。 Was this a person who believed he wanted to trade?这个人真的是认为自己真的想进行交易吗？ Not only did he want to trade, he felt he had to trade. He emphatically told me, “I love to trade the markets. I prefer trading to my profession.”他不仅想要进行交易，而且觉得自己必须进行交易。他坚定地对我说：“我喜欢在市场上进行交易，相比其他工作，我更喜欢交易。”

Market Wiz(ar)dom By now it should be clear that the methods employed by exceptional traders are extraordinarily diverse. Some are pure fundamentalists; others employ only technical analysis; and still others combine the two methodologies. Some traders consider two days to be long term, while others consider two months to be short term. Yet despite the wide gamut of styles, I have found that certain principles hold true for a broad spectrum of traders. After a score of years of analyzing and trading the markets and two books of interviews with great traders, I have come down to the following list of forty-two observations regarding success in trading: 1. FIRST THINGS FIRST First, be sure that you really want to trade. As both Krausz and Faulkner confirmed, based on their experience in working with traders, it is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don’t. 2. EXAMINE YOUR MOTIVES Think about why you really want to trade. If you want to trade for th

4. IT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY TO HAVE AN EDGE4. 拥有优势是绝对必要的。You can’t win without an edge, even with the world’s greatest discipline and money management skills. If you could, then it would be possible to win at roulette (over the long run) using perfect discipline and risk control. Of course, that is an impossible task because of the laws of probability. If you don’t have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Incidentally, if you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.如果没有优势，即使拥有世界上最严格的自律能力以及最出色的资金管理技巧，你也无法取得胜利。如果真的有可能做到这一点，那么从长远来看，通过严格的自律和风险控制，人们在玩轮盘赌时确实有可能获胜。然而，由于概率规律的存在，这种想法显然是不切实际的。如果你没有优势，那么所有的资金管理技巧和自律行为只会让你逐渐陷入财务困境，最终导致失败。顺便提一下，如果你不知道自己的优势是什么，那么你就根本没有任何优势可言。
5. DERIVE A METHOD5. 推导出一种方法To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is irrelevant. Some of the supertraders are pure fundamentalists; some are pure technicians; and some are hybrids. Even within each group, there are tremendous variations. For example, within the group of technicians, there are tape readers (or their modern-day equivalent—screen watchers), chartists, mechanical system traders, Elliott Wave analysts, Gann analysts, and so on. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical—and, of course, the method must have an edge.要想获得竞争优势，就必须拥有一套有效的交易方法。这种方法的具体类型其实并不重要。有些顶尖交易者纯粹依赖基本面分析，有些则完全依赖技术分析，还有人将两者结合起来使用。即使在同一类交易者中，也存在很大的差异——比如在技术分析派中，就包括那些通过查看交易记录来分析市场走势的人、那些专门研究图表的人、那些使用机械交易系统进行操作的人、那些运用艾略特波浪理论进行分析的人，以及那些使用甘恩理论进行交易决策的人等等。方法的具体类型并不重要，但拥有方法才是关键——当然，这种方法必须能够帮助交易者获得竞争优势。
11. DISCIPLINE11. 纪律性Discipline was probably the most frequent word used by the exceptional traders that I interviewed. Often, it was mentioned in an almost apologetic tone: “I know you’ve heard this a million times before, but believe me, it’s really important.”在我采访过的那些杰出的交易员中，“纪律”这个词语被他们使用得最为频繁。很多时候，他们提到这个词时语气中甚至带着些许歉意：“我知道你们已经听过无数次这个道理了，但请相信我，纪律确实非常重要。”There are two basic reasons why discipline is critical. First, it is a prerequisite for maintaining effective risk control. Second, you need discipline to apply your method without second-guessing and choosing which trades to take. I guarantee that you will almost always pick the wrong ones. Why? Because you will tend to pick the comfortable trades, and as Eckhardt explained, “What feels good is often the wrong thing to do.”纪律之所以至关重要，主要有两个原因。首先，它是维持有效风险控制的必要前提；其次，只有具备纪律性，你才能毫不犹豫地执行自己的交易策略，才能果断地决定应该进行哪些交易。我敢保证，你几乎总会做出错误的选择。为什么呢？因为你会倾向于选择那些看起来“稳妥”、不会带来风险的交易，而正如埃克哈特所说：“那些让人感觉舒服的选择，往往才是错误的决定。”As a final word on this subject, remember that you are never immune to bad trading habits—the best you can do is to keep them latent. As soon as you get lazy or sloppy, they will return.关于这个话题，最后我想说的是：请记住，你永远不可能完全摆脱不良的交易习惯——你所能做的，仅仅是让这些习惯暂时处于潜伏状态而已。一旦你变得懈怠或粗心大意，这些习惯就会再次冒出来。

A Personal Reflection I am frequently asked whether writing this volume and the first Market Wizards helped me become a better trader. The answer is yes, but not in the way people expect when they ask the question. No trader revealed to me any great market secrets or master plan unlocking the grand design of the markets. (If this is what you seek, don’t despair, the answer is readily available—just check the ads in any financial periodical.) For me, the single most important lesson provided by the interviews is that it is absolutely necessary to adopt a trading approach precisely suited to one’s own personality. Over the years, I have come to clearly realize that what I really like about this business is trying to solve this master puzzle: How do you win in the markets? You have all these pieces, and you can put them together in a limitless number of ways, bounded only by your creativity. Moreover, to keep the game interesting, there are lots of pitfalls to lead you astray, and some of

I am frequently asked whether writing this volume and the first Market Wizards helped me become a better trader. The answer is yes, but not in the way people expect when they ask the question. No trader revealed to me any great market secrets or master plan unlocking the grand design of the markets. (If this is what you seek, don’t despair, the answer is readily available—just check the ads in any financial periodical.) For me, the single most important lesson provided by the interviews is that it is absolutely necessary to adopt a trading approach precisely suited to one’s own personality.人们经常问我：撰写这本书以及第一本《市场奇才》是否让我成为了一名更优秀的交易者。答案是肯定的，但这种改变并非人们所预想的那样。没有任何一位交易者向我透露过什么重大的市场秘密，也没有人向我提供过能够揭示市场运行规律的终极策略。（如果你在寻找这样的东西，也别失望——答案其实很容易找到，只需看看任何金融期刊上的广告就行了。）对我而言，这些采访给我带来的最重要的启示就是：绝对有必要采取一种与自己性格完全相匹配的交易方式。
Over the years, I have come to clearly realize that what I really like about this business is trying to solve this master puzzle: How do you win in the markets? You have all these pieces, and you can put them together in a limitless number of ways, bounded only by your creativity. Moreover, to keep the game interesting, there are lots of pitfalls to lead you astray, and some of the rules keep changing in subtle ways. There is even a group of very intelligent people telling you that the game can’t be won at all. The really fascinating thing is that, as complex as this puzzle is, there are a multitude of totally different solutions, and there are always better solutions. Trying to solve this wonderful puzzle is what I enjoy.这些年来，我逐渐清楚地认识到：我真正喜欢这份工作的原因，就在于试图解开这个复杂的谜题——如何在市场中取得成功。你手头拥有各种资源，可以用无数种方式将它们组合起来，唯一的限制就是你的创造力。更何况，为了让这个“游戏”保持趣味性，会设置许多陷阱来误导你，而一些规则也会以微妙的方式不断变化。甚至还有一群非常聪明的人声称，这个游戏根本不可能被赢。但真正令人着迷的是：尽管这个谜题极其复杂，却存在无数种不同的解决方案，而且总会有更好的解决办法出现。正是尝试解决这个精彩的谜题，让我感到无比愉悦。

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《The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders》读书笔记

《The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders》

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Prologue

PART II

The New Market Wizards_1

PART VII

公告