【金融市场】黄金牛市行情的第二波正开始2/3

For gold bugs, the unthinkable has now happened. The metal has fallen through its 50-week moving average, the key support line that has held solid through the seven-year bull market. This week is not over yet, of course. If gold recovers enough in coming days, it could still close above the line. 对于金甲壳虫指数（追蹤十五家金礦公司股價表現，在美國證交所），不可想象的事情现在已经发生。黄金已跌破50周移动平均——7年牛市形成的稳固的关键的支撑线。但本周并没有结束。如果黄金能在接下来的几天恢复，还有可能收于该线上方。 Courtesy of my old colleague Peter Brimelow - whose columns on gold are a must-read - note that Australia's Privateer point and figure chart has also broken its upward line for the first time since 2002. This is serious technical damage. 我的原同事Peter Brimelow（他的黄金专栏文章是必读的）注意到，澳洲的私有部门数字已经自2002年以来首次跌破向上趋势线。从技术面看，这很糟。 So have we reached the moment when gold bugs must start questioning their deepest assumptions. Have they bought too deeply into the "dollar-collapse/M3 monetary bubble" tale, ignoring all the other moving parts in the complex global system? Nobody wants to be left holding the bag all the way down to the bottom of the slide, long after the hedge funds have sold out. 所以，我们是否能等到当人们从最根本的假设开始质疑金甲壳虫指数的高位？他们是否对“美元崩溃，M3货币泡沫”这样的故事深信不疑，而忽略了在复杂的全球体系中的其他部分？没人愿意两手空空被一路留在底部，而在此之前，对冲基金早已清仓。 Well, my own view is that gold bugs should start looking very closely at something else: the implosion of Europe. (Japan is in recession too) 好吧，我们的观点是金甲壳虫指数应该开始关注其他方面的消息，比如欧洲和日本的衰退。 Germany's economy shrank by 1pc in Q2. Italy shrank by 0.3pc. Spain is sliding into a crisis that looks all too like the early stages of Argentina's debacle in 2001. The head of the Spanish banking federation today pleaded with the European Central Bank for rescue measures to end the credit crisis. 德国的经济在第二季度衰退1个百分点，意大利收缩0.3个百分点。西班牙陷入了一场危机，这场危机看起来更像2001年阿根廷经济崩溃的早期阶段。今天，西班牙银行业委员会主席请求欧洲央行采取救援行动来中止信贷危机。 The slow-burn damage of the over-valued euro is becoming apparent in every corner of the eurozone. The ECB misjudged the severity of the downturn, as executive board member Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi admitted today in the Italian press. By raising interest rates into the teeth of the storm last month, Frankfurt has made it that much more likely that parts of Europe's credit system will seize up as defaults snowball next year. 高估欧元的危害慢慢显露出来，并在整个欧元区越来越明显。执行委员会成员之一的Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi今日在意大利媒体面前承认，欧央行对衰退的严重程度判断失误。上个月，将利率升至危险的高位，法兰克福成功地使人们相信欧洲部分信贷系统在未来更可能将要失灵，违约的雪球明年将越滚越大。