【金融市场】黄金牛市行情的第二波正开始1/3

Stage two of the gold bull market is just beginning 黄金牛市行情的第二波正开始 Tuesday, August 12, 2008, 07:28 PM GMT 2008年8月12日，星期二 A war breaks out in the Caucasus, pitting Russia against a close ally of the United States. Inflation reaches a new peak in the euro-zone. The CPI reaches the highest in Britain since Bank of England independence. Rampant inflation sweeps the developing world. 俄罗斯与美国的亲密盟友在高加索地区爆发一场战争。欧元区通胀接触新的高点。英国的CPI自英格兰银行独立以来达到最高。失控的通胀席卷发展中国家。 All that glitters is not reliable in these uncertain times在这个动荡的时代，所有闪闪发光的东西都是靠不住的。 Yet gold crashes. It has failed to deliver on its core promises as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, at least for now. Why? 但是金价在涨。黄金至少在现在已无法完成它作为通胀的避难所和安全港的天然属性。为什么？ Four possible answers:有四个可能的回答： 1) Nobody seriously believes that Russia will over-play its hand. The world could not care less about Georgia anyway. Ergo, this is a bogus geopolitical crisis. 1，没有人真的相信俄罗斯会真的发动一场大战。毕竟，世界不会忽视格鲁吉亚的反应。因此，这是一场假的地缘政治危机。 2) The inflation story is vastly exaggerated in the OECD core of countries that still make up 60pc of the global economy. The price of gold is already looking beyond the oil and food spike of early to mid 2008 (a lagging indicator of loose money two to three years ago) to the much more serious matter of debt-deflation that lies ahead. 2，通胀在占全球经济60％的OECD主要国家被过分地夸大了。黄金价格已经在2008年初至年中超过原油和食品的峰值之前，债务缩水这样更严重的事就已经发生。 3) The seven-year slide of the dollar is over as investors at last wake up to the reality that the global economy is falling off a cliff. Indeed, the US is the only G7 country that is not yet in or on the cusp recession. (It soon will be, but by then others will be prostrate). As an anti-dollar play, gold is finished for this cycle. 3、美元的下滑在7年后的今天结束了，最终投资者们发现世界经济正在滑向悬崖。确实，美国是G7国家中惟一没有大幅衰退的（它很快就会，但那是其他国家的情况更糟）。扮演反美元角色的黄金也在此终结。 4) The entire commodity boom has hit the buffers. Looming world recession (growth below 3pc on the IMF definition) trumps the supercycle for the time being. Gold has fallen from $1030 an ounce in February to $807 today in London trading. It has collapsed through key layers of technical support, triggering automatic stop-loss sales. The Goldman Sachs short-position that I have been observing with some curiosity has paid off. 4、整个商品的繁荣已经起到缓冲器的作用。隐约出现的世界经济衰退（根据IMF的定义，低于3％的增长）已超过历次经济周期的期限。黄金已经从2月的1030美元一盎司跌到今天的807美元。这样的下跌已经跌破了技术面的关键点位，触发了自动止损交易。我曾经关注的高盛的空头头寸已经盈利。