机器学习项目实战----泰坦尼克号获救预测(二)

四、特征重要性衡量

通过上面可以发现准确率有小幅提升，但是似乎得到的结果还是不太理想。我们可以发现模型似乎优化的差不多了，使用的特征似乎也已经使用完了。准确率已经达到了瓶颈，但是如果我们还想提高精度的话，还是要回到最原始的数据集里面。对分类器的结果最大的影响还是输入的数据本身。接下来采用的方法一般是从原始的数据集里面构造出新的特征。新增特征，家庭成员数和名字长度。

# Generating a familysize column
titanic["FamilySize"] = titanic["SibSp"] + titanic["Parch"]

# The .apply method generates a new series
titanic["NameLength"] = titanic["Name"].apply(lambda x: len(x))

提取名字(名字里面包含称呼，如小姐，女士，先生等等)，这些称呼也是有可能对结果产生影响的。

import re


# A function to get the title from a name.
def get_title(name):
    # Use a regular expression to search for a title.
    # Titles always consist of capital and lowercase letters, and end with a period.
    title_search = re.search(' ([A-Za-z]+)\.', name)
    # If the title exists, extract and return it.
    if title_search:
        return title_search.group(1)
    return ""


# Get all the titles and print how often each one occurs.
titles = titanic["Name"].apply(get_title)
print(pandas.value_counts(titles))

# Map each title to an integer.  Some titles are very rare, and are compressed into the same codes as other titles.
title_mapping = {
    "Mr": 1,
    "Miss": 2,
    "Mrs": 3,
    "Master": 4,
    "Dr": 5,
    "Rev": 6,
    "Major": 7,
    "Col": 7,
    "Mlle": 8,
    "Mme": 8,
    "Don": 9,
    "Lady": 10,
    "Countess": 10,
    "Jonkheer": 10,
    "Sir": 9,
    "Capt": 7,
    "Ms": 2
}
for k, v in title_mapping.items():
    titles[titles == k] = v

# Verify that we converted everything.
# 验证我们是否转换了所有内容
print(pandas.value_counts(titles))

# Add in the title column.
titanic["Title"] = titles

得到的结果，发现前三个称呼占据数据集的一大半，毫无疑问，这个特征对结果也是有较大影响的。

Mr          517
Miss        182
Mrs         125
Master       40
Dr            7
Rev           6
Major         2
Mlle          2
Col           2
Sir           1
Mme           1
Lady          1
Countess      1
Capt          1
Ms            1
Don           1
Jonkheer      1
Name: Name, dtype: int64
1     517
2     183
3     125
4      40
5       7
6       6
7       5
10      3
8       3
9       2
Name: Name, dtype: int64

通过前面的步骤发现特征有点太多了，我们可以通过特征的重要性来筛选出哪些特征比较重要，而随机森林的好处就是特征重要性衡量。

特征重要性解释：在机器学习的训练过程中，对于多个特征来说，假如要对其中某一个特征来衡量它的重要性，我们就不用这个特征的数据来进行训练，而是把这个特征里面的数据全部替换为噪音数据，假如得到的准确率没有太大的变化，那就说明这个特征其实不那么重要，如果得到的准确率相差太大的话，说明这个特征很重要。其他特征的重要衡量以此类推。

import numpy as np
from sklearn.feature_selection import SelectKBest, f_classif # 选择最好特征
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
predictors = [
    "Pclass", "Sex", "Age", "SibSp", "Parch", "Fare", "Embarked", "FamilySize",
    "Title", "NameLength"
]

# Perform feature selection
# 执行特征选择
selector = SelectKBest(f_classif, k=5)
selector.fit(titanic[predictors], titanic["Survived"])

# Get the raw p-values for each feature, and transform from p-values into scores
scores = -np.log10(selector.pvalues_)

# Plot the scores.  See how "Pclass", "Sex", "Title", and "Fare" are the best?
plt.bar(range(len(predictors)), scores)
plt.xticks(range(len(predictors)), predictors, rotation='vertical')
plt.show()

# Pick only the four best features.
# 只选择4个最好的特征
predictors = ["Pclass", "Sex", "Fare", "Title"]

alg = RandomForestClassifier(random_state=1,
                             n_estimators=50,
                             min_samples_split=8,
                             min_samples_leaf=4)

得到的结果为：

　　

上图就是特征重要性的一个柱状图，发现Age等一些特征好像影响不大，和刚开始的假设有较大出入，那么这些没用的特征就可以删除掉，只保留有用的特征即可。

五、集成算法

使用集成算法来提升准确率

from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier
import numpy as np

# The algorithms we want to ensemble.
# We're using the more linear predictors for the logistic regression, and everything with the gradient boosting classifier.
algorithms = [
    [GradientBoostingClassifier(random_state=1, n_estimators=25, max_depth=3), ["Pclass", "Sex", "Age", "Fare", "Embarked", "FamilySize", "Title",]],
    [LogisticRegression(random_state=1,solver='liblinear'), ["Pclass", "Sex", "Fare", "FamilySize", "Title", "Age", "Embarked"]]
]

# Initialize the cross validation folds
kf = KFold(n_splits=3,shuffle=False, random_state=1)

predictions = []
for train, test in kf.split(titanic):
    train_target = titanic["Survived"].iloc[train]
    full_test_predictions = []
    # Make predictions for each algorithm on each fold
    for alg, predictors in algorithms:
        # Fit the algorithm on the training data.
        alg.fit(titanic[predictors].iloc[train,:], train_target)
        # Select and predict on the test fold.  
        # The .astype(float) is necessary to convert the dataframe to all floats and avoid an sklearn error.
        test_predictions = alg.predict_proba(titanic[predictors].iloc[test,:].astype(float))[:,1]
        full_test_predictions.append(test_predictions)
    # Use a simple ensembling scheme -- just average the predictions to get the final classification.
    test_predictions = (full_test_predictions[0] + full_test_predictions[1]) / 2  # 两个分类器的平均结果
    # Any value over .5 is assumed to be a 1 prediction, and below .5 is a 0 prediction.
    test_predictions[test_predictions <= .5] = 0
    test_predictions[test_predictions > .5] = 1
    predictions.append(test_predictions)

# Put all the predictions together into one array.
# 将所有的预测放在一个数组中
predictions = np.concatenate(predictions, axis=0)

# Compute accuracy by comparing to the training data.
accuracy = sum(predictions == titanic["Survived"]) / len(predictions)
print(accuracy)

得到的准确率为：

0.8215488215488216

接下来用测试数据集来进行预测(注意：在测试数据集里面没有"Survived"这一列，所以我们得不到测试结果的准确率，只能进行预测)

titles = titanic_test["Name"].apply(get_title)
# We're adding the Dona title to the mapping, because it's in the test set, but not the training set
title_mapping = {
    "Mr": 1,
    "Miss": 2,
    "Mrs": 3,
    "Master": 4,
    "Dr": 5,
    "Rev": 6,
    "Major": 7,
    "Col": 7,
    "Mlle": 8,
    "Mme": 8,
    "Don": 9,
    "Lady": 10,
    "Countess": 10,
    "Jonkheer": 10,
    "Sir": 9,
    "Capt": 7,
    "Ms": 2,
    "Dona": 10
}
for k, v in title_mapping.items():
    titles[titles == k] = v
titanic_test["Title"] = titles
# Check the counts of each unique title.
print(pandas.value_counts(titanic_test["Title"]))

# Now, we add the family size column.
titanic_test["FamilySize"] = titanic_test["SibSp"] + titanic_test["Parch"]

得到测试数据集里面Name里面称呼的次数：

1     240
2      79
3      72
4      21
7       2
6       2
10      1
5       1
Name: Title, dtype: int64

最终对测试数据集里面的乘客能否获救进行预测

predictors = [
    "Pclass", "Sex", "Age", "Fare", "Embarked", "FamilySize", "Title"
]

algorithms = [
    [
        GradientBoostingClassifier(random_state=1,
                                   n_estimators=25,
                                   max_depth=3), predictors
    ],
    [
        LogisticRegression(random_state=1, solver='liblinear'),
        ["Pclass", "Sex", "Fare", "FamilySize", "Title", "Age", "Embarked"]
    ]
]

full_predictions = []
for alg, predictors in algorithms:
    # Fit the algorithm using the full training data.
    alg.fit(titanic[predictors], titanic["Survived"])
    # Predict using the test dataset.  We have to convert all the columns to floats to avoid an error.
    predictions = alg.predict_proba(
        titanic_test[predictors].astype(float))[:, 1]
    predictions[predictions <= .5] = 0
    predictions[predictions > .5] = 1
    full_predictions.append(predictions)

# The gradient boosting classifier generates better predictions, so we weight it higher.
# predictions = (full_predictions[0] * 3 + full_predictions[1]) / 4
predictions

得到的结果(1表示能够获救，0表示不能被获救)：

array([0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0.,
       0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1.,
       0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0.,
       0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 1., 1., 0.,
       0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       0., 1., 1., 1., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0.,
       0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 1., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0.,
       1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0.,
       0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 1.,
       0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1.,
       0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 1.,
       0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1.,
       0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       1., 1., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0.,
       0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0.,
       1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1.,
       0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1.,
       0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 0.,
       1., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0., 1.,
       1., 0., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 1., 0., 1., 1., 0., 0., 0., 0.,
       1., 1., 1., 1., 1., 0., 1., 0., 0., 0.])

 六、总结

首先考虑数据集里面的所有特征，尽可能提取出来对结果有影响的一些信息。然后缺失值的处理，字符数据的映射，机器学习算法的改变，模型参数的优化，最后使用集成算法提升准确率。还包括对数据集的特征重要性的衡量和筛选。